Abstract
The purpose of this paper is the model analysis of main 4-regions in China. We take up 4-regins. (1) Beijing area (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei), (2) Shanghai area (Shanghai, Jiangsu), (3) Guangdong area (Guangdong). These three are expanding coastal region and face with big inflow of population. (4) Sichuan area (Sichuan, Chongqing), which is a retarded inland region and an origin of the biggest population outflow. We try to analyze population migration among these 4-regions, and their impacts on economic growth..
Since 1950's under strict family register system, population migration was severely restricted in China, it started to grow only after 1978 due to liberalization trend. Since 1990's foreign investment rushed to coastal region, so the interregional difference with the retarded inland region has rapidly expanded. Inland rural areas (villages) are very poor, and excess workers are increasing. As restrictions of migrations were relaxed largely in 1990s, rural population started to migrate to urban and coastal regions. The current population movement is a serious policy issue. On the other hand, statistical information and quantitative studies about it are very scarce.
We estimate the population migration function and construct 4-regions growth models, and divide each region into urban and rural areas and formal and informal sectors. By simulation studies combining these functions, we analyze the trend of population migration and assess their economic impacts on regional economic growth. This is a part of continuous research project, and an extension of earlier papers (Suzuki, and Fukuchi, 2000, 2001, and 2002).
