Abstract
Social and economic influence due to large-scale industrial development in Mutsu-Ogawara area was studied by the System Dynamics (SD) method with computer. A simplified model (Model I) was proposed for its purpose previously.
By improving and extending the Model I, a new model (Model II) which is illustrated by the flow-diagram in Figure 2 is proposed in this paper. The Model II is constructed by the following dominant constitutent elements: kombinat (petroleum refining and petrochemical industries and electric power plants), secondary industries other than the above, population (classified by sex and age), labor (classified by status), commercial and entertainment service, tax, public investment (school, hospital etc), environmental pollution and primary industries. The Model II is described in DYNAMO containing about 400 equations.
The social and economic influence is simulated by the Model II for fifteen cases using some probable assumptions in Mutsu-Ogawara area. Some of their results are shown in Figures 3 and 4. It can be said from the results that the Model II is adequate to the simulation of Mutsu-Ogawara area.
To verify this study, the simplified model based on the Model II was applied to Kasima area which was an industial area similar to Mutsu-Ogawara area and the results of this simulation were compared with the data (see Figure 5 and Table 1).
Further investigation will be done from the following points of view:
1) refinement of logical framework of the model
2) accuracy of data and their effects on the results
3) methodology
