2 女性の就業と出生率の動向(I 共通論題=少子化・家族・社会政策)

抄録

The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, we show the relationship between female labor force participation (FLFP) and the total fertility rate (TFR) based on various statistics and data sets; second, the statistical facts are explained theoretically and show that the key to understanding this relationship is a reconciliation between work and family; and third, we compare the work/family reconciliation policies of OECD countries and discuss the causes of the low and declining TFR in Japan. The relationship between FLFP and the TFR is as follows. 1) Data from various countries show that there was a negative correlation between FLFP and the TFR in the 1970s, but it turned positive in the mid-1980s. 2) Time-series data show that FLFP increased and the TFR declined during the last thirty years in most OECD countries. Countries that have strong negative correlations between the changes in FLFP and the TFR are suffering from low TFR. 3) Japanese micro-data show that the probability of childbirth is negatively correlated with female employment. The childcare-leave system and childcare centers tend to increase the probability of childbirth. 4) Japanese micro-data also show that the probability of female participation is negatively correlated with the existence of children under school age, but is positively correlated with children over seven years of age. The supply of childcare centers increases the probability of female participation. The household production model explains the relationship between FLFP and the TFR as follows. The substitutability between a mother's childcare and childcare services outside the household, and also that between a mother's childcare and a father's childcare, are important determinants of the relationship between FLFP and the TFR. Although an increase in FLFP reduces female childcare, its effect on fertility will be minimized if childcare outside the household and male childcare compensate for the decline in female childcare. Work/family reconciliation policies increase the substitutability between female childcare and childcare services outside the household. The above conjecture is supported by statistical facts. 1) Countries that have solid work/family reconciliation policies tend to have high FLFP rates and high TFRs. 2) In countries that have inferior work/family reconciliation policies, an increase in FLFP tends to cause a large decline of the TFR. Moreover, the index of gender empowerment is positively correlated with work/family reconciliation policy and with the TFR. This implies that the power of women promotes work/family reconciliation policies and minimizes the negative effect of an increase in FLFP on the TFR. The lack of power women hold in Japan causes inferior work/family reconciliation policies and less childcare being devoted by husbands, which has resulted in the low TFR.