Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and its Applications
Online ISSN : 2188-4749
Print ISSN : 2188-4730
第43回ISCIE「確率システム理論と応用」国際シンポジウム(2011年10月, 滋賀)
On the Liquidity Trap in the Interval (2001,2006) with Zero Interest Rate
Yoji MoritaShigeyoshi Miyagawa
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2012 年 2012 巻 p. 286-291

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During 2001 through 2006, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopted ”quantitative monetary easing”. Although zero interest rates seem to cause the ”liquidity trap” in (2001,2006), the growth rate of GDP can be seen to increase gradually. We shall show empirical studies such that there is a transmission path where the increased ”Reserve at the BOJ” makes the money turned to the stock market, and hence GDP is increased out of the ”liquidity trap”. The principal line of attack is to decompose money into precautionary money demand and transaction one. Assuming that precautionary money demand is a function of GDP and fluctuations due to business cycle, we can obtain a new estimation result of precautionary money demand. Defining ”adjusted money=m2cd - precautionary demand”, we can show a transmission path such that ”Reserve at the BOJ” → adjusted money → stock prices → GDP. Six variables of (adjusted money, stock, exchange rate, interest rate, price, GDP) are combined in a macro money system.

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© 2012 ISCIE Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and Its Applications
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