Demand estimation of splendid alfonsino Beryx splendens and its application to the economic impact estimation of catch limit management

Abstract

　Amid fisheries reforms, Japan is considering expanding the number of fish species subject to catch limits, a regulation that could potentially have economic impacts on fishers. This study estimates the demand curve for splendid alfonsino using daily reports from the Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market. The results suggest that the price flexibility is low, indicating that prices are unlikely to rise significantly even if supply decreases because of the catch limits. Simulations using these estimates of the demand curve showed that a 30％ decrease in supply could result in a 27–34％ reduction in annual sales revenue. In scenarios where catch competition occurs, the decline in sales revenue is significantly larger, underscoring the critical importance of effective measures for managing economic impacts.