論文ID: J18.003
For the practical application of an optimization method for radioactive waste disposal facility design based on a probabilistic approach, we propose a procedure to set probability distributions for radionuclide migration parameters. First, from the initial and long-term viewpoints, it is necessary to extract factors affecting each radionuclide migration parameter and then the sources of uncertainty inherent to each factor. Taking the permeability coefficient of bentonite as an example, one of the factors is the montmorillonite content, whose initial uncertainty originates from the quality of the raw bentonite material. The long-term uncertainty originates from insufficient knowledge about when, how and how much montmorillonite is dissolved. Next, it must be considered how these uncertainties should be managed. The initial uncertainty can be managed by directly analyzing materials and facility structures. The long-term uncertainty can be managed by evaluation based on expert judgments. Finally, it is necessary to organize information on the engineering and economic costs associated with management of the uncertainties. This information is essential to select an optimal facility design in the examination of optimization based on the ALARA principle.
