Uncertainty Analysis of a Numerical Model for Calculating an Effective Source Height

Abstract

The verification and validation processes including uncertainty analysis are now mandatory when utilizing a numerical model in safety analysis. The uncertainty analysis of a numerical model for calculating an effective source height has not been carried out. One of the reasons is a lack of experiment data with uncertainty obtained by the repetition of experiments. In this study, we repeated wind tunnel experiments to obtain uncertainty-quantified experiment data to validate the numerical model under various terrain conditions. Using the obtained wind tunnel data, the uncertainty analysis of the numerical model was carried out to quantify an estimated error of the numerical model. We suggested an adjustment method for the practical application of the numerical model using the estimated error. This method allows us to evaluate an effective source height without the need for wind tunnel results under the same experimental conditions.