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Transactions of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan
Vol. 5 (2006) No. 3 P 229-240



This paper describes a method of estimating source term, i.e., location, period and amount of atmospheric release of radioactive material in real-time during nuclear emergency. This method consists of: (1) trial simulations of atmospheric dispersions on the possible combinations of these parameters and (2) statistical comparison of model predictions with offsite measurements of air concentrations of radionuclides and/or air dose rates from monitoring stations, to find a set of release condition providing model prediction that fits best to the measurement. A parallel execution method for efficiently processing many possible initial conditions is also developed. The performance of this method is favorably evaluated by a verification study using the dataset from European Tracer Experiment.

Copyright © by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan

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