The purpose of this paper is to examine the historical transformation of the Myanmar military’s threat perception of northern Rakhine State. The 2016 and 2017 violent conflicts in northern Rakhine State and the Rohingya refugee crisis may be understood as a consequence of the Buddhist-centered nationalism and anti-Muslim sentiments that have long been entrenched in Myanmar society. However, such a view does not provide a sufficient explanation for the cause and context of the violence. It fails to address the military’s threat perception, which does not always align with the dominant Buddhist-centered nationalism and society’s widely shared anti-Muslim sentiment. We need to understand the autonomous nature of threat perception in the military as it has developed while fighting “security threats” since the chaotic years immediately after independence in 1948. The military’s perception and strategic culture, born out of its selective adoption of ideas and concepts, strongly influence its operations and tactics on the ground even today. Through an analysis of internal military documents, military leaders’ speeches, and laws and regulations imposed on the Rohingya communities, this paper offers a preliminary overview of the development of the Myanmar military’s threat perception regarding northern Rakhine State from the late 1940s to the 2000s.
