Abstract
Long-term prognostic factors between a single recurrence and multiple recurrences of bile-duct stones after removal by endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) remain unclear. Multivariate analyses were performed to examine the relations of the following variables to a first recurrence and to subsequent recurrences of bile-duct stones: age, sex, bile-duct caliber (<15mm vs. ≥15mm), presence or absence of a parapapillary diverticulum, use of endoscopic mechanical lithotriptor, and presence or absence of cholecystectomy. Prognostic factors for a first recurrence were male sex, an age of 70 years or older, presence of a parapapillary diverticulum, a duct caliber of 15mm or greater, and presence of cholecystectomy. Prognostic factors for multiple recurrences were an age of 70 years or older, and a duct caliber of 15mm or greater. Appropriate cut off value of the stone recurrence by the ROC curve was observed in the 75-year-old significantly. Above results were suggested to be a useful indicator of stone recurrence.
