An Analysis of ATM Resource Demand in Fukuoka FIR for 2030

抄録

As part of research into trajectory-based operations, we analyzed airspace and airport demand in the Fukuoka Flight Information Region for 2013 and 2030 to identify bottlenecks and understand future capacity requirements. Baseline traffic scenarios for selected days in 2013 were created from historical flight data. In this paper, we present a method to create forecast scenarios from baseline scenarios and a traffic growth forecast using a ‘copy-and-shift’ method that preserves characteristic flow peaks while increasing traffic. We also present a simple method for estimating the number of annual and hourly movements at airports from two ‘typical’ traffic scenario days and compared it with historical landing data to correct for traffic ‘missing’ from the baseline scenarios such as VFR traffic. We present the resulting 2030 forecasts of annual movements and typical runway demand for the eight busiest airports in Japan, and give comments regarding actual versus expected traffic and on the growth of the main Kanto region airports. A version of this paper presented at APISAT 2016 also contained an analysis of air traffic flows and international air route demand. This is omitted here due to page constraints, but the discussion on airport capacity from the previous paper has been expanded.