論文
ストック効用仮説による世界鉄源需要予測モデル
—予測力の確認と2050年までの需要展望—
2010 年 96 巻 12 号 p. 706-713
詳細
2010 年 96 巻 12 号 p. 706-713
The Utility of Stock hypothesis, which assumes that an in-use stock of constructional material is a function of GDP, was formulated and a clear correlation between the world steel stock and the world GDP led to the estimation that the world demand for iron ore (primary iron) depends not on the volume of GDP but on the variation of GDP, as already reported. It also became clear that the flow of primary iron has the controlling effect on the world production of crude steel. In this study, the prediction power of the Utility of Stock hypothesis is verified. Based on the verification, the global demand for iron source until 2050 is projected by deciding a world 1-region model.
