Launch Cost Analysis and Optimization Based on Analysis of Space System Characteristics

抄録

The rapid developments in micro-technologies and the introduction of modularity and standardization into system designs, present significant opportunities for cost reduction in the design and development of satellite systems. However, the high cost of space launch has become a major hindrance to capitalizing on these opportunities. Therefore, seeking appropriate launch opportunities and reducing launch costs might contribute to further growth of the space market. This paper focuses on the analysis of dedicated launch costs factoring in the effect of launch reliability, which in return, can enable the optimization of system designs. Applying a value-centric architecture, system characteristic space is introduced as the design space to define the characteristics of different systems. Based on our launch vehicle database, the launch cost and reliability of different families of launch vehicles are investigated, where the reliability is calculated using a modified two-level Bayesian analysis. The factors of launch cost and reliability are subsequently integrated into the expected launch cost, acting as the objective function for the analysis and optimization process associated with the manufacturing cost of satellites. Through reviewing and redesigning a few classical launch cases, the effectiveness and applicability of the design architecture proposed are validated.