International Freight Transport Demand Forecasting and Estimation of Economic Benefits of Port Development by Quasi-Dynamic SCGE Model

Abstract

In this research, we propose the method to analyze international freight transport demand by a quasi-dynamic Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model. The SCGE model can describe the change of trade brought about by accumulation of capital stock, since it adopts quasi-dynamic framework. The results of scenario analysis by the SCGE model give us much useful information on future transportation policies.