Debt redemption simulation of expressways

Looking ahead to permanent tolls on expressways

Abstract

In this study, we performed a debt redemption simulation of Japan’s expressway network when tolls were collected until FY 2115, and then compared it with the current toll levels of expressways, which are based on a model that assumes toll collection until FY 2060. The results showed that if the current framework is maintained, and “Shin-Tomei/Shin-Meishin’s lanes increased to six,” “Provisional two-lane to four-lane project,” and “Renewals” are implemented, the toll will be increased by at least 10%. The results also clarified that the simulation values of debt redemption would be almost the same when considering all electronic tolling and halving of the fare for the provisional two-lane sections. Further, the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the toll rate could be reduced for “extension of the road improvement period for the provisional two-lane to four-lane project” and the toll rate in the cases of “property tax exemption” and “1% maximum interest rate” can be less than the current one.