Proposal of a computational design support method for sustainability scenario design

Abstract

Manufacturing industry is required to transform itself into sustainable form. For this task, drawing images of sustainable manufacturing through developing a “scenario” is a hopeful means. When developing a scenario, the developers draw several future visions and transition paths qualitatively and quantitatively. However, scenario development is difficult and exhaustive task. In order to tackle this problem, referring the ideas of design engineering, we propose a framework of “scenario design” and develop a computational support method for scenario design. Based on this, we proposed a computable scenario model and a scenario design process. The proposed model includes sub models expressing intermediate states between the motivation for developing scenario and a documented scenario. We proposed a scenario design process includes four steps in which the scenario is designed in stepwise manner. In the first step, the designers clarify the objective, backgrounds, and outline of the scenario as a whole. In the second step, the designers determine the scenario structure, the number and outlines of sub scenarios. In the third step, the designers elaborate the details of the scenario qualitatively and quantitatively. At last in the fourth step, the result of the scenario design is documented for outreach activities. We implemented a backcasting scenario design support method proposed in a previous study on the design model and the design process. We developed a backcasting scenario design support system. As a case study, we designed Sustainable Manufacturing Scenario with the proposed method and the support system, in which economically and environmentally sustainable futures of Japanese manufacturing industry is envisioned. Through the case study, the effectiveness of the proposed design method and the support system is verified.