Habitat suitability mapping for a high-value non-timber forest product: A case study of Rauvolfia serpentina

抄録

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are essential for rural livelihoods but are often threatened by deforestation and overexploitation. Rauvolfia serpentina is a critical NTFP species; however, there have been no studies on the impact of future climate change on its potential habitat distribution. We used the Maxent modeling approach to address this knowledge gap and determine this species’ current and future suitability under climate change scenarios. The areas more suitable to its occurrence were mainly located near the southwestern coastal regions of Myanmar and India. Based on our predictions, these ‘very high’ suitability areas are likely to decrease in 2070 under both low and high CO₂ emission scenarios, indicating the future vulnerability of this species’ habitat to the impact of climate change. This species is a highly valued NTFP species in the study region; therefore, such a reduction in habitat suitability may result in reductions in NTFP production and economic benefits for the dependent populations. Our findings can help define and conserve areas containing the natural habitats of this high-valued NTFP species.