A Study on the Risk of the First Job Turnover of Higher Education Dropouts

Is It True that Dropouts Are More Likely to Quit?

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the experience of higher education dropout and the likelihood of leaving the first job. Using the SSM survey data to confirm the high turnover risk of higher education dropouts compared to other educational backgrounds， and show that such high turnover risk is due to the job conditions that dropouts are likely to obtain. As a result of the estimation using the discrete-time logistic model， the tendency mentioned above was observed only among males who entered the labor market after the 1990s. The image that dropouts are more likely to leave the workforce is just an image， at the time they enter the labor market. However， it indicates that a situation that can be called the "self-fulfilling prophecy" may be established in which this image restricts the occupational choice， which in turn leads to actual job turnover.