A Study of Safety Evaluation Simulation for Manrated Space Transportation System

抄録

Manrated space transportation system requires much more safety for payload than non-manrated one until now. So the existent methods of reliability evaluation having been applied to un-manrated rockets are not sufficient for the manrated transportation system, or if we apply such old method, it requires impractical cost and time. Therefore we need a new efficient method for safety evaluation or safety guarantee. And naturally it is also needed to design the system taking account of safety. This study aims at suggestion of the efficient and persuasive method of evaluation for safety of manrated space transportation system. Important point is to evaluate each risk quantitatively in advance, to decide what should be demonstrated in the flight or ground test, and to correlate simulation and real phenomenon. First step we should do is to extract hazards from the system. Second step is to evaluate the risk of each hazard quantitatively and to connect it with design point or operation environment. Third step is to integrate each tool to evaluate risk. And last it is required to correlate it with real flight test and to build safety evaluation simulation tool.