2016 Volume 3 Pages 109-122
Seniors without adequate access to public transportation suffer from a lack of mobility after they stop driving as they mostly depend on urban structure, denoted by population distribution. This study estimates past and future numbers and distribution of seniors facing a mobility crisis by applying spatial analysis to the greater Tokyo region, which could be severely impacted by this issue in the near future. In addition, we explore how the past migration contributes to the number and distribution of seniors with poor access to transit by cohort analysis. The data include the national census from 1980 to 2010, future population projections up to 2040, railway station locations, and bus routes. In conclusion, we have succeeded to estimate the number and distribution of seniors with poor access to transit in the subregional level. The total number increased from 324,702 in 1980 to 758,336 in 2010 and can reach 1,394,074 in 2040. In addition, the rates of the seniors without train access increased from 43% in 1980 to 46% in 2010 and can reach 49% in 2040, whereas those without rail or bus access were 15% in 1980, 10% in 2010, and can reach 12% in 2040. Moreover, the cohort analysis indicates that the number and distribution of seniors without access to transit largely depend on the migration of those who bought their house with poor access to transit at around 30 years and the gradual migration of those who bought their house with poor access to transit after that age.