Combination Effects of Next-Generation Transportation and Carbon Taxes on Future Environmental Burden for Aiming to Zero Emission

Abstract

The Japanese government has set a goal of reducing the environmental impact by 46% by 2030 compared to 2013, and reducing the environmental load is an urgent issue. In particular, CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector account for 20% of the total, especially passenger cars accounting for the majority of emissions. This study focused on EVs, AVs, and LRTs, and evaluated the impact of the introduction of these next-generation transportation systems. It also predicted the future environmental burden of traffic for a regional city in Japan focusing on CO₂. Then, assuming the introduction of a carbon tax on automobile traffic, the variable automobile mileage was revealed from mode choice model using trip costs.

As a result, it was clarified that the environmental burden of traffic in the automobile sector will decrease by about 10% in 2030. It was also found that in order to achieve the Japanese government's target of a 46% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 in the private passenger car sector, a carbon tax of 211 yen per kilometer of vehicle travel would be required. And, it was revealed that if a combination of next-generation transportation and a carbon tax were introduced, the required carbon tax levy could be reduced by 11% to 187 yen per kilometer. Subsidies for public transportation were also considered, but it became clear that the effect of subsidizing fares would be insignificant.