Strategy for Minimization of Loss Due to Earthquake Disaster (II)

Abstract

As a continuation of the recent paper by the present authors [SHIMAZU et al. (1970)], a Monte Carlo simulation of construction planning of buildings is developed by generating a time series of earthquake occurrence.
(1) Economic merit of forecast of earthquakes.
When the destructive force larger than the critical level I_c is predicted, the accuracy of forecast is defined by the following two types of probabilities: P₁ (forecast of occurrence is true) and P₂ (forecast of non-occurrence is true). It is shown that the economic merit is more sensitively dependent upon I_c than P₁ and P₂.
(2) Common characteristics of optimum initial strength of buildings for earthquake and meteorological disasters.
It is concluded that the former is not economically profitable in any case than the latter.
(3) Risk (damage plus cost) per year.
The result of calculation is shown in Fig. 9 for seven points in Japanese Islands.
(4) Strategy of reconstruction planning of hypothetical area is considered under various constraints of budget, initial strength and selection of order of reconstructing areas.