地震災害対策の最適計画 (II)
1971 年 24 巻 1 号 p. 1-12
詳細
1971 年 24 巻 1 号 p. 1-12
As a continuation of the recent paper by the present authors [SHIMAZU et al. (1970)], a Monte Carlo simulation of construction planning of buildings is developed by generating a time series of earthquake occurrence.
(1) Economic merit of forecast of earthquakes.
When the destructive force larger than the critical level Ic is predicted, the accuracy of forecast is defined by the following two types of probabilities: P1 (forecast of occurrence is true) and P2 (forecast of non-occurrence is true). It is shown that the economic merit is more sensitively dependent upon Ic than P1 and P2.
(2) Common characteristics of optimum initial strength of buildings for earthquake and meteorological disasters.
It is concluded that the former is not economically profitable in any case than the latter.
(3) Risk (damage plus cost) per year.
The result of calculation is shown in Fig. 9 for seven points in Japanese Islands.
(4) Strategy of reconstruction planning of hypothetical area is considered under various constraints of budget, initial strength and selection of order of reconstructing areas.
