地震 第2輯
Online ISSN : 1883-9029
Print ISSN : 0037-1114
ISSN-L : 0037-1114
総合報告:長期予測のための調査観測
特集: 大地震の長期予測はどこまで可能か? IV. 長期予測のために必要な観測
長谷川 昭堀内 茂木深尾 良夫
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1998 年 50 巻 appendix 号 p. 191-199

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Information on spatial and temporal distribution of stress state and fault strength within seismogenic zones is essential for improving the accuracy of long-term forecasts of large earthquakes. We would be able to specify the area with a high probability of earthquake occurrence, if we know distribution of highly stressed areas in comparison with their strengths. Although at present we don't have a method to measure stress and strength within the seismogenic zone and it is extremely difficult to establish the method, we need to make every effort to extract information on stress and strength and that on their fluctuations in time and space through observations and surveys.
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