In Ise Bay, the catch of sand lance (Ammodytes japonicus) has decreased, and fishing has been prohibited since 2016. The main factor behind the decline in sand lance standing stock is thought to be a decline in their water temperature tolerance, which is accompanied by a decrease in condition factor due to food scarcity in the center and mouth of Ise Bay, from the period of feeding migration to the onset of aggregation around the aestivation ground. In this study, using a sand lance life cycle model (a Lagrangian model coupled with Eulerian hydrodynamic and lower-trophic ecosystem models) developed in a previous study that can be applied to Ise Bay and Mikawa Bay, we conducted a simulation assuming the nutritional environment of the past (mid-2000s) when sand eel catches were high and nutrients were high, with the aim of analyzing the process of fluctuations in sand eel production in Ise Bay and the mechanism of sand eel recovery. The calculation results showed that, assuming the inflow load in the mid-2000s, the increased nutrients in Mikawa Bay spread to the mouth of Ise Bay, increasing the number and condition factor of sand lance that gather from the mouth of Ise Bay to the area around the aestivation ground in May and June (the aggregation period), and the survival rate during the aestivation period increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of stock fish the following year. On the other hand, even when assuming the inflow load amount of the mid-2000s, when the initial population was small, fewer sand lance gathered around the mouth of Ise Bay and the aestivation ground during the aggregation period, and fewer fish reached the only aestivation ground in Ise Bay, so the recovery of the population slowed.
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