The Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics of the University of Michigan has made annual forecasts of American economic activity since 1953. The model employed was originally developed in the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics by Professors Lawrence R. Klein and Arthur Goldberger.The model currently in use is a modification of the original made by Professor Goldberger in 1956. Each of the forecasts was prepared for and presented to the Conference on the Economic Outlook held each fall at the University of Michigan. Thus we have a public record of the actual forecasting performance of an econometric model in operation. It is the purpose of this paper to describe the econometric model from which these forecasts were obtained, to show the method of using the model to make a forecast, and to review the record of past success.
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