The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) indicated that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades had likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in many physical and biological systems. The Copenhagen Accord reached at COP15 confirmed in accordance with the IPCC Report that in order to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate systems, it would be necessary to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius compared with the preindustrial level (UNFCCC, 2009). The Cancun Agreements adopted in 2010 explicitly referred to the importance of a paradigm shift towards creation of a low-carbon society (LCS) offering substantial opportunities and ensuring continued high growth and sustainable development (UNFCCC, 2010).

The realization of LCSs in Asia is imperative in order to achieve both sustainable economic growth and stabilization of climate change. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Asian region accounted for approximately 36% of global emissions in 2005. Considering the rapid economic growth expected in the coming decades, the share of emissions from the Asian region is projected to rise further, accounting for about 50% of global emissions in 2050. Realizing an LCS entails radical changes in technologies, energy systems, production and consumption patterns, social value systems, and lifestyles, in addition to policy changes that mobilize finance and the willingness of people to achieve such transitions.

The present special issue is dedicated to finding pathways towards LCSs in Asia. The first and second papers discuss the required GHG reductions in Asian countries to achieve climate stabilization, and analyse their feasibility. The third paper assesses the implementation plan of the CO₂ intensity target in the 12th Five Year Plan of China. The fourth paper focuses on the effects of urbanization on CO₂ emissions, reflecting the enormous future potential for urbanization in Asia. The fifth paper reviews literature on limiting GHG emissions from the resource consumption associated with economic growth, which would also avoid resource depletion through the efficient and cyclic utilization of resources. The sixth paper proposes a backcasting method to macroscopically design measures to realize a low-carbon land-use transport system. The seventh and eighth papers focus on international cooperation and transfer of technologies. LCS scenarios are explored in the ninth to eleventh papers, with the ninth paper analyzing the feasibility of LCS scenarios and their economic impacts, the tenth paper focusing on energy-scenario development, and the eleventh paper proposing a methodology to create quantitative roadmaps towards LCSs. The final three papers describe LCS scenarios that show the feasibility of LCS development in China, India and the Indian city of Bhopal, respectively.

It is my sincere hope that the present issue will promote LCS studies and contribute to sustainable development and climate stabilization.

In order to achieve global climate stabilization targets, it is an urgent task to develop low-carbon societies in Asia, as Asian countries will account for almost half of both the global population and GHG emissions by 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario. It is necessary to identify leapfrog development pathways to realize a shift to low-carbon emissions and low resource consumption while simultaneously improving people’s daily lives through economic growth.

This paper presents the GHG reductions in Asia required for achieving climate stabilization based on three different GHG emission allocation schemes to reduce global emissions by half by 2050 compared with the 1990 levels. Next, it describes the current climate change mitigation targets and actions proposed by individual countries in Asia, as well as the GHG emission reductions required in order to achieve these national targets. The gaps between the emission reduction requirements and the current targets proposed by each country are then identified. In order to bridge the gaps between the situation of the present national targets and the global GHG reduction targets for 2050, it will be necessary to make significant changes to society itself. Finally, the paper outlines the approach taken by the authors’ team to design pathways towards low-carbon societies in Asia.

This paper examines the feasibility of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets of major countries and regions in Asia when a global goal of 50% reduction in GHG emissions is set. Specifically, this paper considers the feasibility of achieving reduction targets for each region under various allowable emission allocation schemes based on a global 50% reduction target, together with the population and economic activity of each region. This is discussed by comparison with GHG emission reduction projected by using both past trends and future speeds of change proposed in past studies for improvement of energy intensity (EI) and carbon intensity (CI).

The results show that when a high improvement speed of EI and CI is assumed the reduce (RED) case a global 50% reduction is possible if there is low GDP growth (the conventional scenario; CNV), but with high GDP growth (the advanced scenario; ADV), the target cannot be achieved. In the RED case with the ADV scenario, Indonesia and the Philippines meet the reduction targets under all schemes. Japan can achieve emissions per capita (pCAP) and emissions per GDP (pGDP) targets. China can achieve only the pGDP target and India can achieve only the cumulative emissions per capita (pCUM) target. However, in the four reduc tion cases considered in this study, Vietnam and Malaysia fail to meet any of the targets.

In this paper, only domestic mitigation options are taken into account. To achieve the global 50% reduction target, the following actions must be adopted, 1) acceleration of the speed of improving EI and CI beyond that of most past studies, and/or 2) introduction of flexible reduction mechanisms such as international emissions trading.

China announced it would decrease CO₂ emission intensity per GDP by 17% by 2015 compared to 2010 levels in its 12^th Five Year Plan (FYP12: 2011-2015). This paper assesses the implementation plan of the CO₂ intensity target in the FYP12 by comparing it with the implementation of China’s energy intensity reduction policy during the 11^th Five Year Plan (FYP11: 2006-2010) period. While it is difficult to evaluate China’s Cancun Pledge (CO₂ intensity target for 2020), it can be generally agreed that the successful achievement of the CO₂ intensity target in the FYP12 will be crucial for meeting the Cancun Pledge.

To ensure the implementation of the target, the Chinese government applied a Target Responsibility System (TRS) to the FYP12 CO₂ intensity target. National targets are distributed to local governments and enterprises as mandatory targets and the TRS makes it clear which government bodies and personnel are responsible for achieving the allocated target. Target achievement status is linked to personnel evaluation, with a possibility of punitive measures. China’s distinctive legal and political systems have enabled the introduction of the TRS: the strong command and supervisory authority of the central government over provincial governments, the strong binding force of the National Development Plan, and the party’s overall control of personnel affairs.

The TRS played a crucial role in achieving energy intensity targets in the FYP11 period, but there were a number of issues observed, such as the unreasonable allocation of targets to some provinces, illegal forced power cuts by local governments as last-minute methods for achieving their targets, and uncertainty over the credibility of target achievement results. Based on some of the problematic issues observed, China’s government has introduced various measures such as a more reasonable (perhaps scientifically based) target allocation process, an Energy Forecast and Early-Warning System and Fixed Asset Conservation Measures.

Although cities already contribute to a large portion of global CO₂ emissions and the significance of localized counteractions and policies against climate change is recognized under the concept of polycentric governance, urbanization has not been explicitly considered in most models used in constructing climate scenarios. Its explicit incorporation into future climate scenarios would be most relevant in Asia where future potential urbanization is enormous because of the region’s characteristics as a growth engine and as the most populous region in the world. While reviewing the existing literature, this paper summarizes the relevant findings and arguments useful for exploring the possibility of proposing alternative methods of coping with urbanization when constructing climate scenarios. The study found that the available findings from individual city-specific analyses at the micro scale and from cross-country analyses present seemingly contradictory conclusions: the former appear to support the finding of improved efficiency reducing CO₂ emissions with urban development; while the latter claim that urbanization leads to increased CO₂ emissions at the national level. This paper argues that the effects of urban density and the stage of development on the relationship between urbanization and national CO₂ emissions need to be studied further and the direct and indirect CO₂ emissions of cities need to be elucidated to fill gaps in knowledge. The argument is also made that models treating urbanization as a mediator and/or moderator may allow us effectively to separate the effects of urbanization on energy use or emissions from those attributable to other socioeconomic factors.

Resource use and climate change are closely related, therefore resource management also needs to be discussed in terms of carbon management. The authors conducted a literature review to identify important aspects of resource management from the viewpoint of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. As for management of carbon- intensive materials such as steel, cement and paper, it would be impossible to reduce GHGs by significant amounts without lowering global levels of material consumption. However this option has not been explored in detail. Identifying reasons for differences in current material consumption in different countries is an important first step for exploring development in Asia that would be less resource-intense. At the same time, measures such as demand management, weight saving, substitution and lifetime extension need to be explored in more detail. As for management of minor metals associated with mitigation technologies, criticality analyses of metals show that rare earth elements are important to the penetration of mitigation technologies. Recycling, substitution and reduction of intensity of use need to be further investigated for these metals.

Developing a low-carbon system has become an important constraint in land-use transport planning. Although many cities in Asian developing countries have not prioritised the development of low-carbon land-use transport systems yet, their rapid economic growth increases their responsibility for CO₂ emissions from transport. In order to realise such systems, it will be necessary to introduce advanced technologies and drastic land-use transport measures actively in a leap-frog manner. Such a policy package can be comprehensively designed with strategies to avoid unnecessary travel demand, shift travel to lower-carbon modes and improve the intensity of transport-related emissions, as part of the thus-named ASI (Avoid, Shift, Improve) framework. This paper proposes a backcasting method to design measures macroscopically within the ASI framework for the realisation of a low-carbon land-use transport system in the long-term future of Asia’s developing cities. This method sets a future vision of a land-use transport system with instrumental measures suitable for Asian developing cities, such as transit development (shift), land-use development control (avoid), and vehicle technology advancement (improve). Then, it applies a macroscopic urban model for the approximate estimation of long-term changes in transport demand and for capturing the necessary level and timing of measures to achieve the challenging CO₂ mitigation target by 2050 in megacities. This paper also discusses opportunities for advancing macroscopic urban models further for a more comprehensive design of measures for Asian developing cities by clarifying the existing limitations of the model.

The purpose of this paper is to understand the degree of fragmentation of low-carbon technology institutions by examining different functions of existing institutions to remove barriers to technology development. In order to understand the functions of existing institutions, we first identify barriers of technology development for making low-carbon society in the world, with particular consideration to Asia. We do this by extensive literature review on low-carbon technology, technology innovation as well as insights from the result of case studies. After identifying barriers, we then analyze institutional characteristics of the existing institutions working on low-carbon technology, by looking into their main purposes and actor configurations and by investigating whether and how each institution is working to overcome identified barriers to technology development. Through this analysis, we identify the directions we should follow in order to make more cooperative fragmentation regime in low-carbon technology. We argue that low-carbon technology governance may be best served through a fragmentation of governance architecture, but coordinated by a hub that is capable of quickly accessing usable information and transmitting it to the appropriate institutional nodes in the network.

This paper focuses on the role of development cooperation toward low-carbon development in Asia and the Pacific through lessons from past development cooperation. Since there is ample stock of experience and knowledge on development cooperation, such experience and knowledge in the development field can find use in climate change action and would be valuable to learn from. Nevertheless, experience and knowledge in development cooperation do not necessarily always provide the best guide. The most important point will be how to mitigate and adapt to climate change without compromising development benefits to developing countries, particularly to the poorest people. In this sense, all stakeholders should participate in climate change activities toward a common goal, and such activities should be inclusive.

This paper analyzes an ambitious climate mitigation target, namely to halve global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions by 2050 relative to those of 1990. Two representative socioeconomic scenarios are considered. A CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is used as the analytical tool. Although there is great uncertainty about the future, we could ascertain several things. 1) The emission reduction target could cause a GDP loss of more than 1.2% globally, with large variation among countries and regions. 2) Renewable energy and CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) are fundamental technologies for achieving a great GHG emission reduction. 3) Asian regions cannot avoid putting as great an effort into reducing GHG emissions as other countries. These findings imply that such a large reduction is feasible within our scenario assumptions; however, technological progress and diffusion should be supported in order to make those needed fundamental technologies available. The regions which would suffer a large GDP (Gross Domestic Product) loss should be aided and an international policy framework needs to be developed with such losses considered.

In this paper the authors analyze the long-term energy supply and demand perspective for Asia and the world up to 2050, taking into account recent policy changes after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In the Reference Scenario, which yields the normative future evolution of energy demand and supply, the world primary energy demand and CO₂ emissions in 2050 will represent 1.9-fold and 1.7-fold increases, respectively, from 2009 values, indicating that this is not a sustainable scenario from the viewpoint of either the environment or energy security.

In the Advanced Technology Scenario (ATS), which assumes that accelerated RD&D encourages global deployment of advanced technologies, CO₂ emissions in 2050 decrease by 33% from the current level. Even in the Low Nuclear Scenario (LNS), where nuclear power generation development is assumed to stagnate due to policy changes after the Fukushima accident, Asia’s and the global nuclear capacity will continue to increase, but this scenario leads to much larger CO₂ emissions and higher power generating costs than the ATS. The total cumulative investment up to 2050 for the ATS is larger by $13 trillion than that for the Reference Scenario, but the benefit from reduced fossil fuel consumption is much larger than the cost increase, which demonstrates the economic viability of the ATS, although there remain considerable challenges to overcome. Not even the ATS can achieve the target of “halving CO₂ emission by 2050,” thus long-sustained efforts to accelerate RD&D of more innovative technologies will be needed.

Drastic socioeconomic transformation is expected in the course of realizing a low-carbon society in Asian countries, and it will be essential to establish quantitative roadmaps that indicate which options (technologies and policies) need to be introduced or implemented, at what intensity, and by when. The backcasting approach can be an effective means of designing future roadmaps. This approach involves drawing up a target vision to be realized (or avoided), then formulating a roadmap and pathways to satisfy the future target conditions. In this paper, we propose a methodology to create quantitative roadmaps towards a low-carbon society in Asian countries based on the backcasting approach. Our methodology consists of two main steps: (1) formulation of a qualitative roadmap, and (2) design of a quantitative roadmap using a simulation model. In the first step, through an analysis of the barriers that need to be overcome towards realizing the target vision, the required options in the roadmap are specified and mutual relationships among the options are established in temporal order. In the second step, using the AIM/Backcasting Model, CO₂ emission pathways, energy composition and investment profiles are quantitatively determined, and a Gantt chart can also be designed. Finally, in this paper we examine the effectiveness of this approach by describing some results of its application to Japan.

This study analyses the energy system and macro-economic responses to emissions reduction in China from 2005 to 2050 using a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. To explore plausible climate mitigation measures, two socioeconomic scenarios are assumed: Advanced (ADV; active acceptance of innovations and changes) and Conventional (CNV; conservative and passive response to innovations and changes). The assumed emissions reduction target is a 68% reduction from the 2005 level by 2050 derived from a target to halve global emissions. In total, four cases are considered, including two reference cases without emissions reduction and two mitigation cases with emissions reduction. The results, especially in the mitigation cases, are as follows: In the ADV scenario, the GDP in 2050 is thirteen times larger than that in 2005 even with emissions constraint. The maximum emissions price is $375/tCO₂eq in 2036, and the maximum GDP loss is 4.6% in 2035. Electrification is accelerated, and electricity is supplied by various power sources including renewable energies.

In the CNV scenario, the GDP in 2050 is 7.5 times larger than that in 2005 even under emissions constraint. The emissions price increases significantly and becomes $1,932/tCO₂eq, with a GDP loss of 10% in 2050. Unavailability of CCS technology forces to reduce fossil fuel consumption while electrification is accelerated. Electricity is mainly supplied by hydroelectric, biomass and nuclear power.

The results show that there are feasible low-carbon development pathways for China, although great uncertainty exists in China’s future development. To achieve these pathways, efficient and appropriate governance is necessary, and the introduction of new technologies can contribute to minimizing the socioeconomic impacts of emissions reduction.

This study assumes two different scenarios for India and analyzes the energy system and macroeconomic impacts of GHG emissions reductions which follow the global halving target. The two scenarios are conceptualized as: Advanced (ADV; a society which actively accepts innovations and changes) and Conventional (CNV; a society which is conservative and passive regarding innovations and changes).

Both scenarios are constrained by the GHG emissions target, which allows for a 51% increase in 2050 compared with 2005. This target was obtained on the basis of two ideas for 2050: a global 50% reduction target and a globally equally distributed amount of emissions allowed per capita. A dynamic recursive CGE model is applied to assess India’s GHG emissions reduction measures quantitatively. The contributions and findings of this study are:

1) Description of two development pathways to a low-carbon society for India.

2) That significant changes in energy systems were found as results from emissions reduction in both scenarios; however, the reduction measures and the economic impacts differ fundamentally between the scenarios because of differences in the macroeconomic, energy and technology dynamics.

3) That the ADV society, having a much higher potential GDP compared to the CNV, was found to have a potential to emit more GHG and hence would need enhanced emissions reduction measures and higher emissions prices to meet the emissions target. Although the ADV society has the advantage of introducing low-carbon technologies like CCS and renewables, the overall effect results in the ADV society having higher macro-economic impacts from the emissions reduction target: the percentage GDP loss in ADV is 38% higher than that in CNV in 2050. However, since the ADV society’s GDP is more than twice that of CNV in 2050, this does not simply mean that CNV is an economically more desirable society.

This study presents a low-carbon society (LCS) scenario in a rapidly growing city, Bhopal, India. The city currently has problems with sprawling development and associated traffic increase as well as providing energy to the city dwellers and businesses. The city has a unique topographic configuration in which different parts of the city are interspaced by hills and lakes. The new developments are not particularly eco-friendly and planned interventions are needed, if Bhopal wants to continue as a cleaner and greener city. We developed simulations of two possible scenarios, namely “business as usual” (BAU) and “low-carbon society” (LCS) for Bhopal in 2035, and quantified emission reduction potentials of various countermeasures using the AIM/ExSS model. An LCS scenario in which CO₂ emissions are mitigated by 41% from BAU was developed considering these issues. The future scenario development and modeling outcome suggest that the largest mitigation potential can be achieved through measures for energy efficiency improvement followed by fuel shift and integrated transport management. The overall vision of the LCS approach is to make Bhopal a more livable entity to all its residents. Towards realising this vision, seven actions have been suggested that can impact the existing energy consumption pattern as well as GHG emissions in the future. These actions, though, identified separately for the ease of communication, are inseparably linked in the LCS framework and can only work in conjunction towards achieving the vision.