Outline of the Seven Papers of this SpecialIssue

In this Special Issue of Global Environmental Research, the editors asked Japan’s top scientists and experts in the areas of climate change science and policy to review and consider perspectives in related research fi elds after the Paris Agreement.

First, Dr. Kameyama of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) examines key issues for academic experts to prioritize and deal with to support implementation of the Paris Agreement in the post-2020 period. She presents the overall architecture and provisions of the Paris Agreement, maps its major themes, and considers governance issues related to equity and transparency.

Second, Dr. Ashina of NIES discusses transitioning of energy systems and technologies toward achieving the Paris Agreement. In Japan, most GHG emissions come from energy consumption, so de-carbonization of energy systems is crucial and essential. Therefore he underscores the need for technological innovation in energy supply and demand to achieve the target.

Third, Dr. Masui of NIES deals with future scenarios toward achievement of the 2℃ target. He introduces controversial discussions in Japan over the past decade toward the 2℃ target, and discusses what will be needed in Japan to realize the 2℃ target.

Fourth, Dr. Takahashi of NIES overviews research on climate change impacts and adaptation in Japan, and explains climate risk management based on scientific evidence. Based on this review, he suggests important directions for future research on climate risks such as co-design and co-production of climate risk for decision making and strategy planning, improvement of quantification and communication of uncertainties in climate risk analyses, and so on.

Fifth, Dr. Hara and Shimada of the Center for Environmental Science in Saitama (CESS) discuss recent progress in local governmental planning for climate change adaptation, presenting a typical case in Saitama Prefecture. Some municipalities have formulated their own adaptation plan based on the National Adaptation Plan. The Saitama Prefectural Government plays a leading role in local adaptation planning and its implementation as a good practice.

Sixth, Dr. Yamanoshita et al. of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) explain Japan’s new initiative for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). They examine a new bilateral initiative of Japan called JCM REDD+, which would contribute to REDD+ result based finance. JCM REDD+ is a unique REDD+ activity, and to maximize its potential, modalities and guidelines for transparency and accounting related to REDD+, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) should be clarified under the Paris Agreement.

Lastly, Dr. Kuriyama and Dr. Morita of IGES identify factors for promoting renewable energy projects through the Clean Development Mechnaism (CDM), and analyze CDM projects in China, India and ASEAN countries. This paper will be useful in applying the CDM to renewable energy projects in Asian countries.

These seven papers reviewing past research and envisioning future research after the Paris Agreement will be of great help to environmental researchers, experts and policy makers in promoting a variety of studies and surveys to achieve the 2℃ target.

Guest Editor

Hideo HARASAWA

Vice President, National Institute for Environmental Studies

This paper aims at examining key issues that should be prioritized and dealt with by academic experts in the next three to five years, particularly for the purpose of supporting effective implementation of the Paris Agreement in the post-2020 period. The paper starts off with a section briefly illustrating the overall architecture and provisions of the Paris Agreement, followed by a section mapping out major themes under which remaining issues exist that should be overcome before countries start taking actions under Paris Agreement rules after 2020, and how researchers could contribute to resolving these remaining issues. Among the remaining issues, this article takes up the dimension related to governance of the Paris Agreement, covering agendas related to equity and transparency. Other major elements should be further elaborated by other articles in this special issue. The paper concludes by presenting recommendations to a Japanese audience as to how Japan should proceed in the post-2020 period under the Paris Agreement. There are two ways of looking at the world. The first is the traditional image of the 20th century, where the economy is grounded in a stable fossil fuel supply, and emission reduction seems costly. The second is a new image of the 21st century, where emission reduction is considered an opportunity for change. The paper argues that Japanese stakeholders and researchers are affected by the former image of the world, but they need to be aware of the transition, and start taking action today.

In order to achieve the targets in the Paris Agreement, it is important to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drastically. Because in Japan most GHG emissions result from energy consumption (88.6% in 2015), de-carbonization of energy systems is crucial, and there are strong hopes for technological innovation in energy supply and demand to help the targets be reached. Japan has already undertaken various kinds of technological development and implementation in society via both the public and private sectors, and these activities have contributed to the reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions in Japan. For example, the total energy consumption in the latter half of the 1990s and first half of the 2000s was around 550－560 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), decreasing to 502 Mtoe in 2015 through comprehensive energy saving measures and actions to reduce GHGs. Even so, development of innovative technologies is still needed for further GHG emission reductions. In the past, technological measures focused on devices such as those involving hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, or batteries and renewables, but research and development (R&D) is now focused on systemized technologies. One example is energy monitoring systems in conjunction with energy management, and another is local energy networks with renewables and distributed energies such as gas cogeneration and biomass boilers. Low carbonization of energy systems is the key to both GHG emission reduction and achieving a global low-carbon society. Materialization of innovative technologies is also needed for building a low-carbon society, and Japan’s experience and expertise in technological R&D could be the first step in the right direction and will go a long way toward providing a foundation for impressive GHG emission reductions and establishment of a low carbon-society not only in Japan but also all over the world.

The Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016, with the world rushing to realize the 2°C target for holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. On the other hand, there is a big gap between the aggregate of existing mitigation targets of each country after 2020 and emission pathways that would achieve the 2°C target, and this means that more ambitious GHG reductions will be needed toward 2050 and later. Some countries have already submitted their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. Although Japan proposes a 26% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2030 compared to those in 2013 and an 80% reduction by 2050, it has yet to engage in thorough discussions of its long-term strategy and roadmap. The existing analyses indicate an 80% GHG emission reduction is technologically feasible, but there are many challenges to realizing it. This paper introduces discussions in Japan toward achieving the 2°C target, and considers what will be needed in Japan to realize the 2°C target.

Persistent efforts to improve scientific understanding of climate risks and countermeasures against them are indispensable for keeping strong momentum of coordinated climate risk management efforts. For example, the long-term climate target for the global mean temperature increase from the pre-industrial period of less than 2 degrees Celsius in the Paris Agreement is not fresh-off-the-farm but has a long history of political discussion supported by the science available at any given time. On another front, Japan published its first national adaptation plan in November 2015. When we look at domestic climate policies, rapidly growing attention to adaptation in Japan also revolves around the intensified public perception of existing and anticipated climate impacts. Based on the above, the primary purpose of this article is to give an overview of previous, ongoing and future studies on climate impacts and adaptations in Japan with regard to domestic and international policy support. This overview of the studies provides suggestions for some important directions or aspects of future research on climate risks. These include the importance of co-design and co-production in fields of study to support decision making and strategy planning against global environmental problems; improvements to quantification and communication of uncertainties in climate risk analyses; the importance of participation in internationally coordinated research activities, including impact model inter-comparison projects; archiving and management of tools and data developed for risk analysis for portability and transparency; and responsibility of researchers in the iterative process of periodic climate risk assessment.

The surface air temperature in Japan continues to rise, as can be seen from observations beginning in the 1890s. This temperature rise has been caused not only by urbanization but is also greatly affected by climate change. Under these circumstances, efforts toward adaptation to climate change have recently begun in Japan among local governments. Since the national climate change adaptation plan was issued in 2015, formulation of adaptation plans by local governments has steadily progressed. This is partly attributable to support from national projects for the development of local government adaptation plans, availability of a climate change adaptation information platform launched by the Ministry of the Environment, and easier access to climate change adaptation information. In this paper, we survey and review the present state of climate change adaptation planning in local governments in Japan. We also describe the current progress toward climate change adaptation in Saitama Prefecture as an example of climate change adaptation planning by a local government.

Article 5 of the Paris Agreement specifies implementation of REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) through results-based payments. Currently, however, REDD+ results based financing is insufficient for incentivizing full implementation of REDD+ by developing countries. In this article, we examine how a new bilateral initiative of Japan called JCM REDD+ could contribute to REDD+ results-based financing. JCM REDD+ is unique as a CDM-like mechanism providing ex-ante funding to project-based REDD+ activities and issuing credits later for emission reductions achieved which can be used for both countries’ NDCs. The features of JCM REDD+ would complement other existing payment-on-delivery mechanisms. JCM REDD+ supports activities on the ground which directly affect drivers of deforestation. It also has the potential to exploit financial sources from the private sector, in which involvement in REDD+ remains low. JCM REDD+, however, would have no significant positive influences immediately on the landscape of REDD+ results-based financing, as its scale of implementation is restricted in terms of number of projects in the pipeline and available funding sources. To maximize the potential of JCM REDD+, modalities and guidelines for transparency and accounting relevant to REDD+, Nationally Determined Contributions and internationally transferred mitigation outcomes should be clarified under the Paris Agreement. At the same time, we find it is crucial to consider policy designs in developed countries that would enhance investment in REDD+.

This study analysed the greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement cost of renewable energy projects developed through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in China, India and ASEAN countries. The results from this study show that the average abatement cost for all renewable energy technology including biomass, hydro, wind and solar renewable energy in ASEAN countries was the highest among these three countries due to the absence of a “scale of economy,” lower penetration rate of new technology such as PV and wind power, and lower magnitude of grid emission factors. To encourage the implementation of renewable energy in ASEAN countries towards a decarbonised economy, the following research topics could be examined in the future. First, it will be necessary to analyse the “learning curve” for new types of technology, i.e., PV and wind power technology. Second, effective mitigation mechanisms and incentives need to be examined because as the results of this study imply, the magnitude of grid emission factors could affect the abatement cost and business conditions for investments in renewable energies through mitigation mechanisms. Lastly, it is important to discuss the overall policy arrangements since ASEAN countries implement not only feed-in tariffs for renewable energy, but also subsidies for fossil fuels, which provide some advantages to fossil-fuel power plants and affect estimations of CO2 abatement costs. Apparently, climate policies interact so closely with energy policies that it is worth proposing comprehensive climate and energy policies with analytical insights into energy-related technologies and policies in ASEAN countries.