We, as guest editors, are honored to have been given the opportunity to organize this mini special issue on “Modeling of Human-Policy-Technology Nexus and Simulation for Disaster Response and Business Continuity” for the Journal of Disaster Research. This mini special issue aims to contribute to the overcoming of challenges around better design, operation, and management for disaster response and business continuity, where various factors, including human behavior and decision-making, policy and prioritization, monetary and humanitarian costs, and technological and infrastructural constraints, are intertwined, making it difficult to comprehend the entire picture and find an optimal solution.

On the other hand, we firmly believe people have an essential role in disaster response and business continuity. However, unlike physical phenomena, there are no governing equations or laws for human behavior and decision-making; there are variations and inconsistencies in human modeling depending on whether what was done, what ought to be done, what can be done, etc. is being modeled. Sometimes, human behavior must be considered and the different modes of human models clearly distinguished when better socio-technical systems or other systems involving humans are discussed.

All the papers selected introduce the latest innovative research in modeling and simulation, training system design, and quantitative and qualitative data analysis, which are directly and indirectly applicable to a better design, operation, and the management of disaster response and business continuity. At the same time, these papers also focus on one or several aspects of human behavior modes, such as past and current evidence (descriptive model) and what persons or organizations are supposed to be (normative model). The collection of these papers is expected to give good insight and inspiration to the readers and those who may take on the challenges this special issue aims to provide and to help develop an understanding of the importance of a human-centric approach to disaster research.

This paper developed a new framework for better knowledge management through computational simulations, enabling both human knowledge creation and updating simulation models. The framework was developed based on the concepts of the socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization (SECI) model, and it contains a structured workshop that includes the four types of Ba the model requires. To evaluate this framework, the planning of post-disaster restoration of water distribution networks was employed as a case study. In addition, a new optimization method was developed using empirical heuristics obtained from practitioners, aiming for meaningful feedback from the practitioners working in a water management company. Based on our simulation, three workshops were conducted to create new knowledge, and new features were added to the simulation. In these workshops, practitioners performed simulation-based training in planning the restoration and then discussed their decisions. Afterward, it was concluded that the proposed framework was sufficient for updating the simulation. However, it required additional methods to provide practitioners with opportunities to obtain new insights.

In this study, we developed a simulation model of detailed in-hospital disaster response to a mass casualty incident based on the analysis of related documents and actual in-hospital disaster response training, aiming to assess the hospital’s response capacity under various disaster situations. This simulation model includes detailed models of patients, floor configurations, resources, and response tasks, which consider resource requirements for the treatment of different patients with various injuries and physical conditions. The model covers patients’ arrivals to hospitalization or discharge. We conducted simulations of the target hospital to test two resource allocation strategies under two patient scenarios. By comparing the results under different resource allocation strategies, we found that the X-ray photography examination capacity could become a fundamental bottleneck in responding to mass casualty incidents. Also, we found that the appropriate resource allocations and quick replenishment could alleviate the negative effect of resource shortages and maintain a higher performance. Furthermore, the results show that the length of stay can be heavily affected by the patients’ configuration. As a result, by monitoring and anticipating the situation, a resilient and responsive resource allocation strategy must be prepared to handle such uncertain disaster situations.

Based on the lessons learned from past disasters, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has notified the establishment of disaster base hospitals and ensured medical care continuity based on business continuity plan (BCP). Following these, we created a disaster management training program with 45 items, the Disaster Mitigation (Gensai) Calendar for Healthcare Disaster Management Guide (HDMG)^* (“Gensai Calendar”) in 2018. Thereafter, a three-year multicenter project was launched at the Tokyo Metropolitan Hospital Organization to introduce the “Gensai Calendar” and assess its merits as a self-learning material through tests based on it. The project also aimed at establishing a common operating procedure (COOP) for medical continuity at affected healthcare facilities using annual comprehensive disaster drills. The numbers of participants and hospitals recruited for the test over the three-year period were 4,281 in six hospitals, 6,179 in ten hospitals, and 6,216 in seven hospitals. The total of 55 questions were asked in the e-learning format in the first and second years, and 11 in the third year. Questions with less than 70% correct rate were same for three years. Through the drills, a COOP flow diagram was constructed based on the initial responses in the wards. Furthermore, the crisis management system of each hospital was unified, and each BCP was revised into a standard document along the “COOP Flow Diagram.” A COOP system combining the “Gensai Calendar” learnings, annual “COOP Flow Diagram” drill, and standard documentation can be a viable system for medical continuity. This system could also be versatile and introduced to many healthcare facilities.

^* This is also the abbreviation for the Hiroo Disaster Management Group, which has a double meaning. The group consists of disaster prevention staff from the Tokyo Metropolitan Hiroo Hospital, Komagome Hospital, and Bokutoh Hospital, and is responsible for planning and managing disaster mitigation measures.

Objective: This study aims to clarify the actual situation of the business continuity plan (BCP) preparation in the community general support centers in Japan. Method: In September 2021, a survey was administered to 5,391 community general support centers all over Japan using a self-input Web questionnaire. Results: 577 responses were obtained, for a response rate of 10.7%, among which “BCP has been created” accounts for 9.5%; “BCP has not been created, and there is no plan to create any,” 22.0%; “it is currently being examined whether to create BCP,” 47.0%; and “BCP is now being created,” 21.5%. The community general support centers that “have not determined the division of roles” with their municipalities in responding to disaster account for 64%. Conclusions: This study clarifies the situation of the community general support centers in Japan, based on which they cannot be said to be prepared for a disaster. From the word network of answers to our questionnaire, we can see reasons why the BCP has not been created: lack of knowledge and busy work. Centers that have not prepared a BCP, understand the need to create one, but they are too busy and are unaware of how to do so. We discuss measures to promote the creation of BCPs by community general support centers in the future, given the current situation.

This paper presents a nationwide survey about how Japanese home-visit nursing stations prepared and coped with the coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 pandemic. This study also aimed to provide a practical foundation and guide to develop business continuity plans (BCPs) for home-visit nursing stations and nursing care facilities to cope with pandemics. We applied a resource-focused BCP framework to efficiently collect and summarize knowledge and experiences from many facilities about the responses and countermeasures based on the three fundamental purposes to keep resources: prevent loss, promote increase, and utilize limited resources. We conducted a survey during Japan’s third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzed the responses using a qualitative and inductive content analysis method. We could develop categories to summarize various responses and countermeasures in a consistent and comprehensive manner. Based on the analysis results, we proposed six fundamental sub-plans to reorganize resource-focused BCP. The categorization and sub-plans are not special or innovative; however, since they focus only on resources and explain what we need to consider in BCPs in terms of action plans for resources, we expect that it is easier for BCP non-experts to understand the concept and utilize it for developing practical responses and countermeasures.

The local government staff in charge of volcanic disaster prevention often do not experience volcanic disaster response, because they move to other sections every few years, and volcanic disasters are low-frequency disasters. However, when a volcanic disaster occurs, they need understanding of the phenomenon and experience and information for response to respond promptly and accurately. Therefore, we organize the knowledge and information necessary for disaster mitigation work, and develop a prototype volcano information portal (VIP) website for municipalities’ disaster response. First, we conducted a request survey targeting volcanic disaster prevention personnel and organized the requirements. Second, we developed the VIP such that not only was posted information on volcanic disaster prevention of various organizations posted on the website, but also materials and videos that can be used for explanations to residents, and those that can be used for training. Third, after developing the website, we surveyed volcanic disaster prevention members about the usability of the VIP. Finally, we updated the VIP based on the results for using their disaster mitigation work.

This study examines the results of an online survey of Fukushima residents on their impressions of the reconstruction process ten years after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. It aims to gauge the levels of approval and satisfaction that participants have with support for survivors, housing and community reconstruction, industrial and livelihood regeneration, efforts to decontaminate “difficult to return” zones, measures taken to counter harmful rumors, and the use of the reconstruction budget. The key findings are that many participants found little to be satisfied with after the disaster and that the most critical groups were those who had been directly affected by the disaster and older people. Actions that were seen as successful included provision of public emergency housing, the use of the media in counteracting rumors, the opening of major transport links, and efforts to restore agricultural activities. Going forward, the participants were most concerned about whether support for isolated elderly people would continue and whether long-term medical, emotional, and financial support would continue for survivors.

This paper presents a rapid or real-time estimation method of the economic value of direct stock damages caused by significant earthquakes in Japan. The result will contribute to both the government and private sectors’ early decision-making, particularly for provisional budget allocation. First, we developed a simple but evidence-based model for estimating stock losses explained by a representative earthquake hazard factor and an exposure factor, i.e., seismic intensity and existing stock of physical assets. The key characteristic of our estimation model is that the dependent variable is prefectural damage amount. Still, the explanatory variables come from municipal sources: we overcome this data availability problem through our estimation process. Second, we carefully checked the model’s specification, estimation, and performance to be soundly applied to a real-time assessment of future earthquake events. We also explain the automated measuring of the prefectural direct loss value and its distribution to every 250 m mesh. Finally, we show two examples of the application of our model; one is the case of the 2018 Northern Osaka Earthquake, and the other is the anticipated Tokyo inland earthquake.