Under a set of assumptions for Japan's future nuclear power generation program, necessities for spent fuel management are assessed up to the year 2050. Within a foreseeable time frame, plutonium recovered from reprocessing will mainly be recycled to light water reactor (LWR) plants as “Pu-thermal” fuel. From the viewpoint of spent fuel management, the following observations are suggested as important:
(1) In the middle-term up to 2010-2020, spent fuel arising which will exceed the domestic reprocessing capacity must be dealt with by storage. Amount of spent fuel to be stored can be forecasted with a high degree of precision.
(2) In the longer-range up to 2050, significant uncertainty exists depending on number of factors, such as nuclear power generation and actual operation of reprocessing. Forecasted requirement of spent fuel storage varies from none to uniformly increasing up to 25,000tHM by 2050.
(3) MOX spent fuel resulted from plutonium recycling in LWRs must be stored by the time when the second domestic reprocessing plant will be completed and can accept those fuel. This means careful planning and management will be needed for varying quantity and quality in the spent fuel accumulation in the near future depending on strategies to be undertaken.
(4) Theoretically, it is suggested that there may be the optima in duration and capacity in storage. Thus, deliberation must be maintained in implementing services for spent fuel, such as reprocessing and/or storage, in a way the whole system does not by far depart from those optimality.
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