There is concern about the decline in the load bearing capacity of road pavement, as expressways have deteriorated. The load bearing capacity of pavement can be evaluated indirectly through a non-destructive testing, such as deflection measurement with a falling weight deflectometer (hereinafter called FWD testing). The purpose of this study is to estimate a Markov deterioration hazard model based on the information obtained through the FWD testing, and draw a performance curve of load bearing capacity. It is rare to carry out the FWD testing at the same point more than one time, and so the data on transition of condition states cannot be obtained, and it is difficult to estimate the model. In this study, the authors identify the factors in decreasing pavement's load bearing capacity by using the data of regular FWD testing, and statistically estimate the deterioration process of load bearing capacity while considering the interaction among deterioration factors.

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