In disaster-affected areas, the impact of land use changes from the past to the present on disaster risk is often discussed, but most of these observations are qualitative. However, quantitative analysis could provide valuable information for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study aims to analyze the impact of land use changes through a series of heavy rainfall disaster simulations. Past and present models of a real region that experienced an extreme rainfall disaster were prepared, with flooding and landslides represented in the simulations. The results quantitatively demonstrated that, to reduce flood damage effectively, it is essential not only to implement basin maintenance, but also to prioritize safety in residential area selection and to proceed with land development in a careful manner. Finally, the potential advantages and limitations of the proposed approach are discussed.
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