The Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan(ESRI) has been studying methods for estimating prices reflecting changes in the quality of medical care with the aim of improving the accuracy of national accounts. In this paper, we summarize the basic concept based on the results of studies conducted in other countries and international organizations, etc., examine the methodology, perform trial calculations, identify issues, and discuss the estimation of deflators using medical data.
Specifically, we used the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare’s “National Database of health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan (NDB)” to estimate the deflator using a method that adjusts the quality of medical care by subdividing the classification of injuries and illnesses. The estimation results suggest a gradual increase in the disease-based deflator. The results of this estimation are an important milestone in the deflator study reflecting the quality of medical care. On the other hand, there are still major issues to be considered in adjusting the quality of medical care. For example, there are many technical limitations to the receipt information used in this study, and even internationally, no solid method has yet been established for quality adjustment.
The method of estimating the medical care deflator has developed while reflecting changes in medical care systems in various countries. In order to fully introduce a deflator reflecting changes in the quality of medical care into national accounts in the future, it will be necessary to overcome the challenges in turn by conducting multifaceted research, keeping a close eye on trends in international research on changes in medical care systems and quality adjustment in Japan and overseas, in addi-tion to more detailed estimates using the NDB.
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