The substantial economic magnitude of every country in the world should be compared by GDP converted into the dollar by purchasing power parity. Then, Iillustrated the economic expansion process and fluctuation process in the main capitalist states for 165 years in 1850 to 2015 by this method. Based on such a viewpoint, Iused statistics of Angus Maddison, and statistics of IMF. Moreover, the expansion process of the world economy in 1950 to 2015 was illustrated. Based on the secular trend [shown in this figure] for 65 years, the increase process of the real average income and real economic magnitude in the "advanced nations" and the "emerging countries" by 2100 was viewed. Based on such research, Ihave judged as follows. (1)The economy of "advanced nations" goes to rapid growth→medium growth→low-growth→zero-rate economic growth (1960-2050). (2)The economy of "emerging countries" is pursuing it behind time for about 60 years by the aggregate average (2010-2100). (3)The structure of the world economy changes rapidly and it makes the growth rate decrease gradually as the whole (2000-2100). Considering the above secular trend, probably, the target in the future world (2010-2100) will be as follows. (1)Establishment of the democratic welfare society on the basis of economical richening. (2)Formation of the world system of government based on rise of emerging countries. (3)Conversion into "the society of citizen bases" from "the society of capital basis." Japan realized postwar reconstruction and high growth based on the Reform of the social system after the Second World War. In the face of many subjects, Japan had many experiences and has got the result in the meantime. Many countries which are pursuing the Japan back can refer to the experience and result. Probably, the technology and the system which Japan developed are utilizable. The Constitution of Japan is aimed at democratic welfare society in peace. It is also precious property of Japan to have maintained this firmly. If such experience and property are utilized effectively, future Japan will be able to do the big contribution for realization of better society and the better world.

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The global money flow pumped by the USA has decreased particularly in the form of more speculative portfolio investments, etc., but foreign direct investments in emerging countries have remained at a high level. On top of high labor costs in the developed world, technological advances in NC machine tools and digital information network, etc., will continue the globalization of production and enterprises' activities. Employment and income has increased along with the progress of industrialization, which has expanded the domestic markets including consumer durables in the export-oriented emerging countries such as China and ASEAN countries. Economic development of these countries has expanded the demand for natural resources which has increased the export of resource-producing emerging countries such as Brazil and Russia. The price surges due to inflow of global money to energy and minerals markets have also expanded the export earnings of these countries which increased their domestic markets. These countries' domestic market expansion also depend more on global money in the form of portfolio investments than the export-oriented emerging countries. Increasing domestic market and global corporations' expanded division of labor have enabled emerging countries to produce automobiles, the most expensive durables. Economic structures based on the mass-produced durables (ESBMPD) have flowed into Emerging countries. The 4 trillion yuan domestic demand stimulus plan implemented by China after the Lehman shock made market participants feel expectations for emerging countries to lead the world which caused the second inflow of global money into emerging countries and energy and minerals markets. But even China could not continue large scale government spending for long while the developed world remained in stagnation. Global money has been nervous since China reduced spending which has affected more on those countries depending on speculative money. Although some may fall into "Middle Income Trap", Economic structures based on the mass-produced durables (ESBMPD) will continue to flow into Emerging countries.

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Entering this century, the structure of the world economy is undergoing large shifts. Ten years after the Asian Currency Crisis occurred in 1997, another global financial crisis with the US as epicenter erupted and spread to the world in 2008. The Sub Prime Loan Crisis, which was triggered by America's Lehman Brothers bankruptcy spread to Europe and then Japan, through various channels. Moreover, the crises become more severe than that in the US epicenter. Needless to say, the crisis has also hit East Asia, which has become the world's manufacturing base. Despite the severe prospects of the emerging economies after the crisis, the influence of the emerging economies in the world economy has grown stronger. The biggest change is the shifting to a new structure of the development structure from one that is based on advanced economies for half a century. Indeed, it has not been a linear phenomenon. Owing to this, the assessment of the emerging economies has been fluidly vacillating. While going through a zigzag route, passing through some epoch phases, slowly but steadily there seems to be a change towards a new structure. This can be seen in sharp relief when looking at the changes in the global economy for the past ten years, including the current world financial crisis, from the analytical perspective based on the development of the East Asian economy. In this paper, in section[1] we will first of all consider the movements of the advanced and emerging economies after the 1980s, and confirm the large changes in the relationships between these two sets of economies. In section[2], we will consider the development mechanism of the emerging economies, which has become the main character in bringing about this structural shift. The dramatic development of the emerging economies after the Second World War started out with the NIES type of development, but we will confirm that this is changing to a new development mechanism at the turn of the century. In section[3], we will consider the East Asia's self-reliance accompanying this structural change, and the new regional issues that arises therefrom. Finally, in section[4], we will discuss the effects on the East Asian emerging economies of the various policies adopted by the advanced countries under the current global depression. Incidentally, in this report, we will call as PoBMEs (Potentially Bigger Market Economies) the emerging economies mainly responsible for triggering the change. We think that this way we can clarify the development mechanism of emerging economies in the world economy at the start of the 21st century, and bring to the fore the features of today's capitalism.

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It has been widely predicted that China will soon overtake the USA to become the world's largest economy, and that India will overtake the USA within fifty years or so. Such optimistic projections have been thrown into doubt by recent macro-economic events in these countries, although most observers believe that China will overcome its present difficulties. There is less confidence about India. This paper discusses briefly the economic and political obstacles to rapid economic growth in China and India. On the assumption that China and India will surmount these obstacles and return to their projected growth paths, they will both become great economic powers by mid-century. The paper explores some of the implications of such a development for the rest of the world. Attention is focussed on the following issues. ・International Trade. This section provides a brief survey of the widely discussed impacts of Chinese and Indian economic growth on world trade. As China moves up the value-chain, it will phase out its labour intensive exports and focus on more "knowledge-intensive" products. This will create new competition for established makers of knowledge-intensive products in today's advanced economies, but it will also create new demand for labour intensive-products from the poorer countries of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. Primary commodity prices are another important issue. Commodity prices are still at a high level due to the additional demand resulting in part from the impact of Chinese and Indian economic growth. However, it is uncertain how fast such prices will continue to increase in the future. Because of new supply and demand side developments, it is possible that the real price of commodities such as oil and gas will stabilise or even fall over the medium term. ・International Investment. This section documents the scale and location of outward direct investment by Chinese and Indian firms. Despite the attention it has received, Chinese investment in the rest of the world is a still relatively small, even in Africa where it has been a cause for alarm in the Western media. The scale of Indian investment is even smaller. Outward investment by Chinese and Indian firms is growing rapidly, but it will be a long time before their overseas operations compare in scale to those of their established rivals from more advanced economies. ・Is there a New Imperialism in the Making? This section considers two issues that have classically been associated with the concept of imperialism: global rivalry between large firms; and colonial-style exchange in which industrial powers exports manufactured goods to impoverished countries in return for oil, minerals and other primary commodities. As Chinese and Indian firms expand overseas they will be drawn into global rivalry with other large firms, and lik e other firms they will draw upon their "home" governments for support. It is also the case that China, and to some extent India, has a colonial-style division of labour with many poor resource-based economies, especially in Africa, which import cheap labour-intensive manufactures from China in exchange for oil and minerals. However, this is only part of the story, since the money used to purchase cheap Chinese manufactures is often derived from oil and mineral exports to non-Chinese destinations in Europe and elsewhere. ・The Military Balance. The emergence of China as a great economic power is provoking a shift in the military balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Concern about China's increasing strength and assertiveness is leading many countries in the region to upgrade their own military capabilities. The United States has also announced a rebalancing of its strategic priorities with greater emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region. China has one great advantage in this context. The United States is a global power which, despite its new

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In this paper, we examine the dynamics of the Uno-Hoshino model that are modeled by Osaka(2009). Local stability analysis of Uno-Hoshino model has already been elucidated there, but global stability analysis has not been detected clearly yet. There is a possibility of global stability and neighborhood equilibrium stability are different since the Uno-Hoshino model is nonlinear. One purpose of this paper is to show that the global dynamics of Uno-Hoshino model is unstable, detecting a Lyapunov function. The characteristics of the Uno-Hoshino model, where the real wage rate is determined in the commodity market at an underemployment equilibrium, is that the real wage rate is determined by the labor market at a full employment. Modeling by Osaka is one which focuses on underemployment, but by introducing the lowest limit of the real wage rate, it is possible to consider that real wage rate is determined in the labor market at a full employment. In this case, we will show that there is a possibility that the model is cyclical fluctuations.

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