The relationship between log cumulative number of patients (X) and that of deaths (Y) in an epidemic follows the equation logY = klogX − klogN₀, where k is a constant determining the slope and N₀ is the value of X when Y = 1. Diseases with k = 1 are Ebola hemorrhagic fever, avian influenza H5N1, cholera, and hand, foot, and mouth disease; those with k > 1 are the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in countries other than Mexico and the SARS epidemic in some countries; and those with k < 1 include the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in Mexico. Epidemics with k > 1 can be simulated by postulating two subpopulations (normal population [NP] and vulnerable population [VP]), where the epidemic proceeds at higher speed and at higher mortality in VP than in NP. Epidemics with k < 1 can be simulated by postulating coexisting high virulence virus (HVV) and low virulence virus (LVV), with the former being propagated at slower speed and with a higher mortality rate than the latter. An epidemic with k > 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of subpopulations NP or VP from the total population (f) and NP- or VP-specific patient multiplication (M) and mortality (D) rates. An epidemic with k < 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of HVV- or LVV-infected human populations (f), and HVV- or LVV-specific M and D.

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Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) are responsible for approximately 5%–10% of acute respiratory infections. The serotypes of commonly detected respiratory HAdV in Asian countries are diverse. However, there are no well-documented reports of circulating HAdV serotypes in Mongolia. Between January 2010 and May 2011, 1,950 influenza-negative samples from patients with influenza-like illness, including eye swabs from patients with eye symptoms, were screened for HAdV, and 40 samples (2.1%) were positive for HAdVs. Among these 40 samples, 31 samples were positive for the hexon gene used in phylogenetic analysis, as determined by PCR. We identified 7 different serotypes. We constructed the phylogenetic trees of HAdV-B7 and HAdV-B3, the 2 most commonly detected serotypes in this study. All detected HAdV-B7 and -B3 Mongolian strains had identical sequences. HAdV-D8, known to be associated with epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), was detected from nasopharyngeal and eye swabs. There was no difference between the amino acid sequences of the hexon and fiber genes that may affect tissue tropism in Mongolian strains and those in EKC-causing strains.

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Climatic conditions may have affected the incidence of influenza during the pandemic of 2009 as well as at other times. This study evaluated the effects of climatic conditions on influenza incidence in Okinawa, a subtropical region in Japan, during the 2009 pandemic using surveillance data from rapid antigen test (RAT) results. Weekly RAT results performed in four acute care hospitals in the Naha region of the Okinawa Islands from January 2007 to July 2011 were anonymously collected for surveillance of regional influenza prevalence. Intense epidemic peaks were noted in August 2009 and December 2009–January 2010 during the influenza pandemic of 2009. RAT positivity rates were lower during the pandemic period than during the pre- and post-pandemic periods. Lower ambient temperature was associated with higher influenza incidence during pre- and post-pandemic periods but not during the pandemic of 2009. Lower relative humidity was associated with higher influenza incidence during the pandemic as well as during the other two periods. The association of climatic conditions and influenza incidence was less prominent during the pandemic of 2009 than during pre- and post-pandemic periods.

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One concern about rotavirus vaccines is its possible association with intussusception. Thus, it is necessary to determine the baseline incidence for intussusception in the first year of life in places where rotavirus vaccines are introduced. However, few safety data exist for the period at which the first dose of Rotarix and RotaTeq are allowed to administer in Japan. The first dose of Rotarix is scheduled to administer at 6–20 weeks of age and that of RotaTeq is scheduled to administer at 6–24 weeks of age; the upper limits for these vaccines is later than the upper limit recommended by the World Health Organization by 5 and 9 weeks, respectively. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional study by reviewing medical charts of all hospitals that provided pediatric beds in Akita Prefecture, Japan, and identifying the cases of intussusception that met the Brighton criteria level 1 in these hospitals between January 2001 and December 2010. During this 10-year period, 122 children younger than 1 year of age were diagnosed with intussusception. The incidence of intussusception was estimated at 158 per 100,000 person-years among children younger than 1 year (95% confidence interval, 131–188), 10 per 100,000 person-years for children aged 0–2 months, 165 for children aged 3–5 months, and 300 for children aged 6–8 months. This rapid and substantial increase in the incidence of intussusception during the first year of life should be considered when formulating the immunization schedule for administering rotavirus vaccines in Japan.

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Definitive diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) by conventional culture, followed by bacterial identification based on biochemical tests is time-consuming and tedious. Simple loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) specific for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, targeting the M. tuberculosis 16S ribosomal RNA gene, termed TB-LAMP, was evaluated as an alternative for rapid culture confirmation. TB-LAMP was assessed for its ability to detect M. tuberculosis complex in BACTEC MGIT 960-positive cultures. Of the 103 cultures evaluated, 100 were identified to contain M. tuberculosis complex by TB-LAMP and had concordant results with standard biochemical tests of niacin accumulation, nitrate reductase, lack of heat-stable catalase, and susceptibility to para-nitrobenzoic acid. These results indicate that TB-LAMP in combination with BACTEC MGIT 960 is a specific, reliable, and technically feasible method for rapid and accurate identification of M. tuberculosis complex.

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Pericarditis due to Listeria monocytogenes is a very uncommon and serious disease. We describe a case of fatal subacute pericarditis that was caused by L. monocytogenes in a 61-year-old woman with Hodgkin's disease who was diagnosed in 1975 and considered cured. In addition, we review the literature on this condition.

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Post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a sequel of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and PKDL patients are an important reservoir for anthroponotic transmission of VL. Therefore, diagnosis and treatment of PKDL is important for the kala-azar elimination program in South Asia, including Bangladesh. While definitive diagnosis of PKDL is still based on microscopy, despite the low sensitivity of this method of diagnosis, PCR for identification of kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) from Leishmania parasites is expected to be a rapid and sensitive diagnostic method. We attempted PCR-based diagnosis from skin biopsy specimens and compared PCR to other available detection methods in order to determine the acceptability and feasibility of the PCR diagnostic method in an endemic area of VL in Bangladesh. Both skin biopsy specimens and blood samples were collected from 110 patients suspected to have PKDL from 6 subdistrict health complexes in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Using microscopy, we identified 32 samples (29.1%) that were positive for Leishmania. Immunochromatography tests indicated that 85 samples (77.3%) were positive for Leishmania. In contrast, a total of 104 (94.5%) samples tested positive using nested PCR, while unaffected portions of skin from PKDL patients tested negative. Sequencing analysis of the PCR products indicated that the amplified portion had more than 98% nucleotide sequence identity to the Leishmania donovani reference strain, D10. These findings indicate that the PCR method using a skin biopsy is highly sensitive and useful for confirmatory diagnosis of PKDL.

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The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence, type, and clinical features of nosocomial infections (NIs), their etiological distribution, and the antibiotic resistance patterns of causative organisms in the general pediatric wards of a hospital in Turkey over a 3-year period. The Hospital Infection Control Committee NI surveillance reports were used as a database. NIs were detected in 171 (2.25%) of the 7,594 hospitalized patients. Some of these patients experienced more than 1 episode, and thus, the total NI episodes were 229. Patients' age varied from 1 to 144 months (mean ± standard deviation, 14.5 ± 23.6 months). The NI rate was 3.02%, and the NI density was 3.17/1,000 patient days. The most frequent NIs were lower respiratory system infections, blood stream infections, and urinary tract infections. Gram-negative organisms were the most frequently isolated agents. Of the 171 patients with NIs, 47 (27.5%) died.

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To determine the expression level of Shiga toxin (Stx) 2-related toxins (Stx2 and Stx2c) produced by each of 33 Stx-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 strains, stx2 and stx2c mRNAs (stx2-related mRNA) were measured using real-time PCR with primers that recognize sequences common to stx2 and stx2c. The amount of Stx2 and Stx2c protein was measured using a reversed passive latex agglutination (RPLA) kit. Expression of stx2-related mRNA was significantly higher in STEC O157 strains carrying the stx2 gene (i.e., stx2, stx1/stx2, or stx2/stx2c) than in most strains that carried the stx2c gene but not the stx2 gene (i.e., stx2c or stx1/stx2c). RPLA might not measure the precise amount of each toxin variant; nevertheless, stx2-inclusive strains had 40-fold higher mean toxin titers than did strains that carried the stx2c gene but not the stx2 gene, with the exception of 1 stx2c strain. Interestingly, 1 stx2c strain that was isolated from a patient with severe hemorrhagic diarrhea had the highest stx2-related mRNA expression and the highest toxin titer of all 33 STEC O157 strains. Taken together, these findings indicated that measurement of stx2-related mRNA expression could reflect differences in production levels of toxins among STEC strains.

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In this prospective cohort study, we investigated the prevalence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in adult patients with nosocomial diarrhea by performing enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for detecting toxins A and B and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detecting the presence of the tcdB gene in stool samples. We determined the factors associated with CDAD, and the treatment outcome of CDAD from May 2010 to January 2011. A total of 175 stool samples were tested by EIA and PCR. In total, 26.9% patients tested positive for C. difficile: 12.6% by EIA and 24.0% by PCR. The kappa coefficient and total agreement of both the tests were 0.46 and 83.2%, respectively. Onset of diarrhea after antibiotic administration for 10 days or more (OR, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.14–6.44; P = 0.024) and leukocyte count >15,000 cells/mm³ (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.24–7.88; P = 0.016) were significantly associated with occurrence of CDAD. The non-response rate to CDAD treatment was 24.1%, and the all-cause mortality rate was 31.9% in the CDAD group as against 35.9% in the non-CDAD group (P = 0.721). In our study, the performance of direct PCR of stool samples for detecting tcdB was better, with the number of positive results for stool toxins A and B being twofold higher than that in the case of EIA. Patients who have diarrhea after receiving antibiotics for 10 days or more or those who have a leukocyte count of >15,000 cells/mm³ should be investigated for CDAD.

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Sporadic cases of legionellosis have increased in Saitama Prefecture. This study aimed to understand the characteristics and incidence of legionellosis in Saitama Prefecture by studying the corresponding data from Tokyo and all over Japan. We analyzed cases of legionellosis registered from 2005 through 2009 in the annual reports of the Infectious Disease Surveillance Center. There were two peaks in the incidence of legionellosis in Japan between June and November, and a trough between February and May every year. Similar seasonal characteristics were observed in both Tokyo and Saitama. Proper management of risk factors—such as cooling towers and other aerosol-generating devices, before and during the seasonal increase in these incidences—is essential as a prophylactic measure against legionellosis.

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The xenotropic murine leukemia virus-related virus (XMRV) was first described as a novel human gammaretrovirus in prostate tumor tissues and was reported to be found in blood, suggesting the possibility of XMRV transmission via blood transfusion. The gag and env regions of the XMRV proviral DNA that were detected in 1,030 blood samples collected from the greater Tokyo area were examined by real-time PCR analysis. However, XMRV infection was not found in the samples; this suggested that the risk of XMRV transmission via transfusion is very low in Japan.

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To clarify the molecular epidemiology of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in Okinawa Prefecture, located in a subtropical region of Japan, we performed genetic analysis of the F gene in HMPV from patients with acute respiratory infection from January 2009 to December 2011. HMPV was detected in 18 of 485 throat swabs (3.7%). Phylogenetic analysis showed that 17 strains belonged to subgroup A2 and 1 strain belonged to subgroup B1. We did not observe seasonal prevalence of HMPV during the investigation period. A high level of sequence identity was observed in the strains belonging to subgroup A2 (>95%), and no amino acid substitution was found compared with other strains detected in Japan and other countries. The pairwise distance values among the present strains belonging to subgroup A2 were short. Our results suggest that the predominant HMPV strains belonging to A2 are highly homologous and seasonal epidemics were not seen in Okinawa during the investigation period.

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The variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis is a method frequently employed as a molecular epidemiological tool for Mycobacterium tuberculosis genetic fingerprinting. In this study, we characterized the population of M. tuberculosis circulating in Mie Prefecture, Japan, and assessed the utility of the proposed JATA12- and 15-VNTR analyses of 158 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates using 25 VNTR loci. The results revealed that the ancient Beijing sublineage is the most prevalent M. tuberculosis strain in Mie Prefecture, accounting for 85.0% of 113 Beijing lineage isolates. Our results also showed that JATA-VNTR using well-selected loci is as reliable as standardized 15-locus MIRU-VNTR. Furthermore, JATA15-VNTR analysis reliably improved the discriminatory power compared with basic JATA12-VNTR analysis. In summary, our data suggest that JATA-VNTR is a useful tool for discrimination of M. tuberculosis in areas where ancient Beijing strains are frequently isolated.

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In the absence of any effective vaccine against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), current anti-retroviral drugs may be suitable for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Previous large clinical trials showed that PrEP reduced HIV infection in high-risk populations. Emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) may be a suitable agent for PrEP. FTC/TDF PrEP efficacy was evaluated using a highly pathogenic simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) in a non-human primate model of AIDS, the SHIV-KS661c/cynomolgus monkey model. Double oral administration of FTC/TDF (20/30 mg/kg), at 24 h and a few minutes prior to exposure, completely protected 2/3 monkeys from infection. Interestingly, a single oral administration 2 weeks before viral exposure moderately rescued CD4 cells, although the data did not reach statistical significance. These results are consistent with previous primate studies and with recent clinical data.

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Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is the causal agent of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), a common cancer in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. The risk factors for KSHV infection have been extensively studied for Western countries but remain largely undefined for other parts of the world. Schistosomiasis, caused by Schistosoma japonicum infection, was recently identified as a cofactor for KSHV infection in rural Egypt. In this study, we examined the seroprevalence of KSHV in a population along the Yangtze River in China that has a high incidence of schistosomiasis. KSHV seroprevalence in subjects with schistosomiasis was slightly higher than that in subjects without schistosomiasis, but the difference was not statistically significant (8.4% versus 6.6%; P = 0.204). However, after adjusting for gender, KSHV seroprevalence in men with schistosomiasis was found to be significantly higher than that in men without schistosomiasis (8.4% versus 2.8%; odds ratio [OR], 3.170; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.501–6.694; P = 0.002). Compared to men, women showed significantly higher seroprevalence of KSHV (5.9% versus 9.3%; OR, 1.621; 95% CI, 1.084–2.425; P = 0.019).

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