The aim of this paper is to re-evaluate the validity and relevancy of the balance-of-power theory, putting it to logical, empirical and practical tests.
First, the balance-of-power theory is proven to be amorphous with respect to power distribution, system level and the equilibrating process which it purports to denote. Disequilibrium easily enters into the common usage of balance, from which the ideology of balance derives. Provided with equilibrium or a modicum of disequilibrium, propositions could be empirically tested. But a description of the existing distribution of power or significant disequilibrium would not be subjected toempirical but practical tests.
Second, the methodology of a number of statistical and empirical tests are analyzed and proven to be deficient in any operationalizable concept of “power balance, ” even though this should be central to the theory.
Third, practical tests are carried out with respect to the attitudes of H. J. Morgenthau, J. H. Herz, H. A. Kissinger, K. N. Waltz and M. A. Kaplan toward the balance of power, nuclear deterrence, the Vietnam War and Nazism. While nuclear deterrence theory is inclined to be accepted by protagonists of the military balance without taking into account humane considerations, it is more or less rejected by those who lay greater stress on the political connotation of balance, however loosely defined.
Considering the above, readers abroad might well cast doubt on the validity of this research to the peace and war problems faced by Japan. A few additional remarks may illuminate the peace orientation behind this paper.
The principle of balance-of-power is not only very popular, but also most ambiguous, among Japanese statesmen and political scientists. As shown here, it is inherently composed of concepts which cannot be strictly defined and verified. Besides, Japanese politics has scarcely experienced the principle's application. Modern Japan could not afford to make political use of this principle, being a nascent imperialist power before 1945. Contemporary Japan has established military forces under the guise of the so-called Self-Defence Forces, without giving any consideration to the political connotation of the principle, despite years of diplomatic inactivity since 1945. The peace movements and “peace thought” in post-war Japan have also been somewhat ignorant of political realism.
To reap the harvest of our peace-orientation, this study, peace-oriented but conscious of political realism, aims to act as a fertilizer for regional and world peace.
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