Lake Shinji is the blackish lake, located in the east part of Shimane Prefecture. A large amount death of Gizzard shad (Konosirusp unctatus) occurredi n 1996 in Lake Shinji. Sincet hen, a strangep henomenon such as the death is making an appearance every year. This large amount death is a very serious problem for the fishery and the water quality environment in Lake Shinji.
This research, try to find causes of the death, describes a forecasting model that analyze the relation between the water quality and the large amount death of Gizzard shad. We considered about the hypothesis of the factor of Gizzard shad's death. Thinking about the hypothesis, we paid attention to decreased physical strength of Gizzard shad by the spawning. Additionally, we paid attention to Gizzard shad going up the river from Lake Nakaumi to Lake Shinji to spawn. And we will try to establish the model for forecasting the large amount of death based on the hypothesis.
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