日本鉱物科学会 2016 年年会プログラム

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A warning and evacuation system is very important for reducing damage that may occur during sediment disasters. An accurate, high-resolution, real-time hazard map system is very useful for supporting an evacuation decision. In this study, we developed a refined real-time hazard map system that comprised a distributed rainfall-runoff model, slope failure model, sequential learning model, and debris flow inundation model. First, a physically based detailed distributed rainfall-runoff model was constructed. To achieve real-time predictions, parallel computation was applied to the distributed model to reduce the calculation time. As verification, the model was then applied to past heavy rainfallrunoff events and wide-scale slope failure events in the Sumiyoshi basin, Rokko Mountains. Finally, a WebGIS-based graphical display screen image and an alarm system were constructed to inform the user of the predictive calculations of the model. We found that the model could adequately describe sediment disasters and was quite useful as a prediction tool.

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