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  • ―「米国要因」と「中国要因」を中心に―
    斎藤 元秀
    ロシア・東欧研究
    2008年 2008 巻 37 号 3-16
    発行日: 2008年
    公開日: 2010/05/31
    ジャーナル フリー
    As Russia seeks a resurgence of power under the tandem leadership of Putin and Medvedev, its foreign policy reflects both internal and external influences, especially US and Chinese factors. The objectives of this paper are three-fold. The first is to illustrate key features of the Putin-Medvedev foreign policy, including a review of Richard Sakwa's remarks on Putin's “new realism.” The second is to trace how Russia's foreign policy has evolved in relation to the United States, Europe, Central Asia, China and Japan. The third is to assess Russia's diplomacy under the tandem leadership of Putin and Medvedev.
    As to the external factors, the US factor plays a central role in the formulation of Russian foreign policy. Moscow tends to weigh the probable responses of Washington as it pursues its global foreign policy goals. Russia's policy towards an expanding Europe, including the eastward expansion of NATO, is no exception. Russia's policy towards the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in Central Asia, is increasingly influenced by the Chinese factor. In this regard, Moscow tries to maintain relations with Beijng on a good-neighborly basis, while trying to keep a rising China in check, making use of a combination of the Japanese, Indian, and US cards.
    According to Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Russia saw itself as the Pluto of a Western solar system in the aftermath of the disintegration of the USSR. Now, however, it has begun to create its own Moscow-centered system. Although Russia has not been successful in this attempt, the foreign policy of the Putin-Medvedev regime has resulted in several achievements: (1) the prevention of the early entry of Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO; (2) the alienation between Washington and its allies in the Old Europe; (3) the demonstration of a resurgent Russia in the Southern Caucasus through the realization of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia;
    (4) the closure of the US Manas Airbase in Kirgiz.
    Currently, Russia is facing significant challenges in dealing with the global economic crisis, ignited in the US. In this case, Russia appears to be attempting to mend fences with the US, while seeking, at the same time, to reduce US influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The US and China factors, together with domestic concerns, are likely to continue to drive Russia's foreign policy under the tandem leadership of Putin and Medvedev.
  • 国際漢点字の創出にむけて
    村田 忠禧
    中国語学
    1993年 1993 巻 240 号 142-150
    発行日: 1993/10/16
    公開日: 2010/03/19
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 柴野 均
    史学雑誌
    1989年 98 巻 5 号 995-997
    発行日: 1989/05/20
    公開日: 2017/11/29
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 冷戦後世界とアメリカ外交
    斎藤 元秀
    国際政治
    2007年 2007 巻 150 号 135-149,L14
    発行日: 2007/11/28
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    The main purpose of this paper is to analyze U. S. policy toward Russia and the post-Soviet region along with Russia's response from the September 11, 2001 attacks through the July 2007 U. S. -Russian summit talks. First of all, I will illustrate the key features of President George W. Bush's foreign policy toward Russia, and then will argue the evolving US-Russian relationship in three phrases.
    The first phase, characterized as the period of President Vladimir Putin's “one-sided love, ” covers the period from the advent of the Bush administration in January 2001 to May of the same year. The second phase, “the period of the U. S. -Russo honeymoon, ” extends from May 2001 through 9/11 of the same year to around the outbreak of the Iraq War in March of 2003. Contrary to the prevailing view, Washington's relationship with Moscow had begun to improve prior to 9/11 after President Bush's May 2001 at the War College. It was against this backdrop that the 9/11 attacks took place and the two nations closely cooperated with the Islamic radicalism as their common adversary. The third phase, i. e., “the period of the Cold Peace, ” started in the fall, 2003 after the end of the Iraq War. In 2006, the bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply after the rise of Russia's clout and the implementation of Moscow's high-handed diplomacy, particularly in its neighboring states. The United States has been apprehensive of Russia steadfastly tilting toward an authoritarian regime. Interestingly, President Bush's stance vis-à-vis Russia appears to be not as tough as the U. S. Congress wants.
    U. S. policy toward the Baltic States, Ukraine, South Caucasus, Central Asia and Russia's response after 9/11 will also be discussed in details. A special reference is made to illustrate the U. S. efforts to enhance its influence in Central Asia after the 2005 Andijan uprising in Uzbekistan; since then, Washington has tried to enhance its influence in Central Asia without pressing hard for the democratization of the existing regimes.
    Since the disintegration of the USSR, the United States has been pursuing a policy to consolidate the independence of the states in the post-Soviet space. In contrast, the Russian side continuously regards it as its own sphere of influence. Russia contends that the United States has been trying to secure its own hegemony in the post-Soviet space. Although the Cold War is over, mutual suspicion remains.
    There is no question that the U. S. -Russian relationship is at the lowest point in the past 20 years. Yet it is an exaggeration to insist that a new Cold War has arrived. For example, a selective partnership between the U. S. and Russia exists in the war on terrorism, the diplomatic settlement of the nuclear issue of Iran and North Korea as well as the proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction.
  • 和田 春樹
    国際政治
    1995年 1995 巻 109 号 206-209
    発行日: 1995/05/20
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 井内 敏夫
    史学雑誌
    1989年 98 巻 5 号 990-995
    発行日: 1989/05/20
    公開日: 2017/11/29
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 斎藤 元秀
    ソ連・東欧学会年報
    1987年 1987 巻 16 号 108-114
    発行日: 1987年
    公開日: 2010/03/16
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 竹中 佳彦
    史学雑誌
    1990年 99 巻 5 号 800-807
    発行日: 1990/05/20
    公開日: 2017/11/29
    ジャーナル フリー
  • ポポヴィチ エドアルド
    ロシア史研究
    2007年 81 巻 3-12
    発行日: 2007/11/07
    公開日: 2017/07/25
    ジャーナル フリー
    В историографии проблема исследования японского вопроса в отношениях союзников и политика СССР в отношении Японии в первые послевоенные годы, в контексте нарастающей биполяризации мирового пространства, не получила еще достаточного освещения. В данной статье, на основе, документальных публикаций последних лет, а также некоторых архивных материалов, делается попытка, через призму взаимоотношений между СССР и США, еще раз рассмотреть позицию СССР в японском вопросе в период с момента капитуляции, до начала поворота оккупационной политики США в 1948 году.В рассмотренный выше период СССР и США имели общую цель обезопасить себя от возможной угрозы со стороны Японии в будущем и строили свою политику на путях кардинального искоренения агрессии Японии. США, получив контроль над руководством оккупационной политикой союзников в Японии в рамках вышеуказанной цели, провели радикальные реформы. Однако, если в Китае и Корее находились советские войска, что обеспечивало непосредственную вовлеченность СССР в решение проблем политического будущего этих стран, то в Японии оккупированной американскими войсками, позиции Советского Союза были скорее формальными и СССР был вынужден осуществлять свои цели<<руками>>США, что и было главным источником конфликта и затрудняло выработку тактических действий советской дипломатии.
  • 泉川 泰博
    国際政治
    2020年 2020 巻 199 号 199_97-199_109
    発行日: 2020/03/30
    公開日: 2020/04/16
    ジャーナル フリー
  • ロシア・東欧研究
    2008年 2008 巻 37 号 i-xiii
    発行日: 2008年
    公開日: 2010/05/31
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 日本外交の非正式チャンネル
    植木 安弘
    国際政治
    1983年 1983 巻 75 号 81-97,L10
    発行日: 1983/10/20
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    Postwar Japanese diplomatic negotiations with the Soviet Union have involved informal contact-makers in certain significant ways. Their roles and functions, however, have changed over time. Two major diplomatic negotiations involving the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries in the mid-1950s and the continuing territorial dispute in the 1960s and the early 1970s are examined to illustrate the case in point.
    The initial contacts to start negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations were made through informal channels. Fujita Kazuo, a journalist, and Majima Kan, the chief administrator of the National Conference to Restore Diplomatic Relations with China and the Soviet Union, became instrumental in the successful Soviet bid to open a direct communication link with Prime Minister Hatoyama Ichiro (1954-1956) at quite the displeasure of the Japanese Foreign Ministry. Once the formal negotiations set off, informal channels were, nonetheless, still utilized, but this time at the highest negotiating levels and mostly by Japan.
    Hatoyama's visit to Moscow in October 1956 culminated in the Joint Declaration to establish diplomatic relations but the territorial issue was left unresolved. Subsequently. Japan made repeated efforts in vain to break through the deadlock, including the informal diplomatic maneuvers in the 1960s and Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei's tête-à-tête negotiations with the Soviet leadership in Moscow in 1973. The Soviet Union used non-diplomatic channels to probe Japanese thinking and in turn to convey to Japan some of its own thinking on outstanding issues. The maneuverability of informal contact-makers, however, narrowed in the 1970s as both the Japanese and the Soviet negotiating positions on the territorial dispute hardened.
    Several other factors restricted the use of informal contact-makers as back channels of negotiations in the 1970s. The Foreign Ministry took the view that the ultimate resolution of the territorial issue squarely rested with the political judgment of the highest Soviet leadership. The hierarchical and closed structure of Soviet foreign policy-making also limited the maneuverability of Japanese informal contact-makers. The Foreign Ministry did not favor using politicians and other prominent individuals with political clout as emissaries, nor did it favor seeing individuals without official credentials approaching Moscow. This stemmed in part from the Ministry's belief in conducting a unified foreign policy, and in part from the Ministry's elitism in handling foreign relations. It was distrustful of Japanese who with unofficial capacity would volunteer to seek contacts with the Communist power.
  • ―地政学的なコンセプトと日常生活上の用語―
    ムヒナ・ヴァルヴァラ
    ロシア・東欧研究
    2018年 2018 巻 47 号 180-198
    発行日: 2018年
    公開日: 2019/10/08
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 岩下 明裕
    国際政治
    2020年 2020 巻 201 号 201_17-201_32
    発行日: 2020/09/15
    公開日: 2022/03/31
    ジャーナル フリー

    What do we consider as the Soviet/Russian foreign policy toward East Asia? Many historians tend to discuss its nature using an “expansionist” model in general, particularly in Europe. This may differ in terms of discourse: some have emphasized the security factor against neighbors, while others have focused on ideology as “socialist” in the Cold War era and “Eurasia” in the present day. However, the recent development of Soviet/Russian studies accents more on the “pragmatic” and “state-interested” based causes for policy orientation.

    As background, this paper sheds a light on comparative studies of Soviet/Russian foreign behavior toward China and Japan. In contrast with the European/Atlantic front, Soviet/Russian behaviors have been more “moderate” and “restraint” toward East Asia/Pacific before/after the Cold War period. Indeed, it depends on the difference of Soviet/Russian power influence between Europe and East Asia. How have the Soviet Union/Russia dealt with China and Japan in East Asia/Pacific? For the Soviet Union/Russia, China and Japan have been big powers to manage for security as an “enemy” or as a “friend” in triangular relations dependent on historical factors.

    This paper focuses on the foreign activities of Khrushchev era to Putin via Gorbachev. It is well known that Khrushchev’s foreign policy of “peaceful coexistence,” which tried to use “space” between “friend and enemy,” triggered a more pragmatic and flexible orientation than the predecessor’s dichotomy. At the time, with the Soviet Union facing territorial/border disputes with China, a communist ally, and with Japan, a potential enemy under US control, Khrushchev decided to deal with each in a different way: For Japan, a promise in the 1956 joint declaration for the handing over of two islands, Shikotan and Habomai, but for China, the ignoring of its demand for re-bordering the Amur and Ussuri rivers after the negotiations of the mid-1960s. As a result, war with China started while a deal with Japan was frozen mostly because of US pressure on Japan.

    The failure of Khrushchev’s foreign policy impacted his successor’s decision. The lessons brought about Gorbachev’s success on the border agreement with China in 1989 and Putin’s follow-up on finalizing the remaining border issues in 2004. It also framed Russia’s policy toward Japan. Gorbachev never recognized Khrushchev’s failed proposal of the 1956 declaration and Putin, recognizing the validity of the declaration, has strictly demanded that Japan depart from US influence as a condition of Khrushchev’s deal. As a result, Russia has enjoyed its best relationship with Japan while using the “territorial card” as a theoretical concession of the 1956 declaration to keep Japan from going against Russia.

    This paper draws conclusions from the transformation of the Soviet and Russian foreign policy toward China and Japan. It also suggests lessons gleaned from Russo-Japan relations for academics and foreign policy circles in Japan and Asia.

  • 上村 直樹
    国際政治
    2020年 2020 巻 199 号 199_141-199_165
    発行日: 2020/03/30
    公開日: 2020/04/16
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 協調と対立の条件に関する考察
    金 栄鎬
    国際政治
    2003年 2003 巻 132 号 153-175,L14
    発行日: 2003/02/28
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    North Korea's foreign policy and its policy toward South Korea obviously wavered after the Cold War. Why did North Korea's policy toward the South seesaw between cooperation and conflict? The purpose of this article is to examine under what conditions North Korea cooperates with South Korea.
    Firstly, although during the Cold War North Korea had shown conflictive behavior toward the South, the U. S. and Japan, after the Cold War its policy distinctively shifted to cooperation. For balance of power on Korean peninsula in this period, South Korea was remarkably superior to the North. Was balance of power the causal element of North Korea's cooperation? An investigation of the article demonstrates that objective balance of power did not draw on the North's cooperative behavior. Change of South Korea's policy toward the North and cleavage in the South's domestic politics affected the North's policy, while the North reviewed its definition of “nation” and “nationalism” which could be seen as subjective element of the North's behavior toward the South.
    Secondly, North Korea's policy, in turn, shifted to conflict after its declaration of withdrawal from NPT. Strictly speaking, around its declaration of withdrawal North Korea explored cooperation with the South in contrast to confrontation against the U. S., but, as soon as the U. S. -North talk launched, the North intensified cooperation with the U. S. in reverse to conflict against the South. How can such a distortion of North Korea's policy be coherent? An examination of the article shows that South Korea's policy was reversed to a hard-line in terms of “legitimacy” of state, subsequently the North's policy also returned to conflictive and exclusive one. And here also balance of power did not necessarily affect the North's policy into cooperation as well as above-observation. Rather, above-mentioned subjective element produced the North's exclusive behavior against the South, which was regarded, according to a North Korean peculiar view, as “treacherous” or “a puppet of the American Imperialism”.
    Thirdly, there have been talks and agreements between North and South Korea, such as the North-South Joint Statement in July 1972, mutual visit of divided families in the mid 1980's, the basic Agreements between the South and the North in December 1991, and the North-South Summit Meeting in June 2000. A comparative analysis indicates the following: North Korea's policy and behavior in 1970's and the mid-1980's could not be seen cooperative in spite of some talks and agreements, because there had been prevailing view of “legitimacy” of state and “liberation of The South” with North Korea. After the Cold War, it was verified that North Korea's behavior and policy changed with the South's policy and their domestic politics, and more than anything-else, the North' cooperation with the South was conditioned under whether of appeasing “legitimacy” of state.
  • 岩下 明裕
    ロシア・東欧研究
    2020年 2020 巻 49 号 62-81
    発行日: 2020年
    公開日: 2021/06/12
    ジャーナル フリー

    This essay sheds light on Soviet and Russian Foreign Policy through use of the “critical geopolitical” concept of the “geo-code.” A state’s “geo-code” refers to the construction of narratives regarding its own space and history over time. Borrowing from Klaus Dodd’s ideal-type categories, which he uses to explain geo-coded narratives of British policy (“little England,” “cosmopolitan,” “European” and “American”), this paper proposes to utilize combinations of four ideal-type categories, “Atlantic/European,” “ethnic Russian,” “Eurasian” and “super power,” in order to analyze and explain Soviet and Russian foreign policy.

    The first section applies the metaphor of a photograph to the memoirs of several foreign policy leaders: Andrei Gromyko and Eduard Shevardnadze in the Soviet-era; and Andrei Kozyrev, Evgenii Primakov and Serghei Ivanov in contemporary Russia. The paper shows how the composite image of Russia held by these individuals shaped the state’s foreign policy. It also stresses that different concepts of sovereignty have been sustained or reconstructed within Soviet/Russian international law theories in dialogue with changes in images held by the foreign policy leader.

    The latter half of the paper further develops this theory in order to apply it to Putin’s current Russian foreign policy perception of Northeast Asia, and particularly of China and Japan. From the late Soviet period under Gorbachev to the early Russian period of Yeltsin, Japan was considered as one of the “rising” powers able to aid Russia’s political and economic transition, and it was widely recognized that the relationship would be facilitated by a peace treaty resolving the territorial issue between the two countries. However, following reconciliation between Russia and China, China became the more important partner for Russia, not only in Northeast Asia but also throughout Eurasia.

    Following its disengagement with the West after the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia’s image of itself as close to “Europe” slipped, while that of the state as “ethnic Russian” and “Eurasian” that must become a “great power” to oppose the US was emphasized. This has meant that Japan is no longer an essential partner from the viewpoint of Russia’s dominant foreign policy images. In turn, the significance of China has increased and developed for Russia beyond the two countries historical “love-hate” relationship. Not only policy makers but also ordinary people look to China as Russia’s “No.1” partner, while the United States is its indefatigable “enemy.” There is no room for Japan in this picture while Japan remains so dependent on the US for security matters.

    In the conclusion, the paper debunks the myths associated with “classical geopolitics,” which associate foreign policy solely with perceptions of state power and geography. It shows that a “geo-politics” which links the positivist and constructive approaches, and which seeks to account for various analytical scales—from micro to macro, below/beyond the state—can analyze foreign policy change more effectively.

  • 史学雑誌
    1999年 108 巻 6 号 1184-1223
    発行日: 1999/06/20
    公開日: 2017/11/30
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 「民族」の利益、「国家」の「正統性」、国内政治
    金 栄鎬
    アジア研究
    2002年 48 巻 4 号 3-31
    発行日: 2002年
    公開日: 2014/09/15
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 廣瀬 陽子, 六鹿 茂夫, 大西 富士夫, 兵頭 慎治
    ロシア・東欧研究
    2014年 2014 巻 43 号 43-68
    発行日: 2014年
    公開日: 2016/09/09
    ジャーナル フリー
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