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  • 笹島 雅彦
    国際安全保障
    2008年 36 巻 1 号 213-218
    発行日: 2008/06/30
    公開日: 2022/04/20
    ジャーナル フリー
  • ――パワーと脅威の均衡と日本の同盟政策――
    福島 啓之
    国際政治
    2022年 2022 巻 206 号 206_67-206_83
    発行日: 2022/03/25
    公開日: 2022/03/31
    ジャーナル フリー

    This article explains historical transition of the U.S.-Japan Alliance by applying theoretical frameworks which combine the distribution of power in the world and the degree of threat. The explanation reveals the evolution of Japan’s alliance policy as a minor ally. It suggests that the minor ally’s adaptable behavior in order to respond to the threat and unite with the major ally contributes to the maintenance of the asymmetric alliance. This argument provides an implication to answer why the U.S.-Japan alliance has been maintained although it had unfair or unequal relationship for each ally.

    Theoretical frameworks to examine the asymmetric alliance rearrange four basic forms of the minor ally’s alliance policy. They are reflex balancing, buck-passing, hedging, and complementary cooperation. Reflex balancing is to counter a threat and to rely on a major ally. Buck-passing is to make a major ally accept the burden of an alliance. Hedging is to approach a target country while cooperation with a major ally is maintained. Complementary cooperation is to counter a threat and to assist a major ally.

    I argue that the combination of the distribution of power and the degree of threat affects the minor ally’s alliance policy as the member of the asymmetric alliance. Their causal relationships have following four patterns. First, if the distribution of power is decentralized and the degree of threat is high, a minor ally chooses reflex balancing. Second, if the distribution of power is decentralized and the degree of threat is low, a minor ally chooses buck-passing. Third, if the distribution of power is concentrated and the degree of threat is low, a minor ally chooses hedging. Fourth, if the distribution of power is concentrated and the degree of threat is high, a minor ally chooses complementary cooperation.

    Applying theoretical frameworks of balance of power and threat, I explain four basic forms of Japan’s alliance policy which were adopted by succesive administrations except for three short-lived ones. When war and confrontation were observed in the Cold War period, Japan relied on the U.S. and balanced against the Communist camp’s threat. When leaders’ talks and tension reduction were observed in the Cold War period, Japan depended on the U.S. When the sole superpower U.S. pursued unilateralism and exhausted in the Post-Cold War period, Japan cooperated with the U.S. as the ally while it approached China and Russia. When Senkaku islands problem fell into a territorial dispute in the Post-Cold War period, Japan decided to start collective self-defense with the U.S. Therefore, the implication of this article suggests that the adaptable nature of Japan’s alliance policy to the changes of international environment sustained the U.S.-Japan alliance.

  • ――九〇年代から新「日米防衛協力のための指針」策定まで――
    三百苅 拓志
    国際政治
    2022年 2022 巻 206 号 206_117-206_132
    発行日: 2022/03/25
    公開日: 2022/03/31
    ジャーナル フリー

    As a part of the Japan-U.S. Alliance, the Japan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (SCC) is situated at the top of the hierarchical channel for security talks. The SCC played a major role in the management of the Japan-U.S. Alliance during the post-Cold War era as it was reorganized into a “2+2” meeting structure in which two foreign ministers and two defense ministers participate. However, there have been no studies that have tracked the historical changes in the talks system or the talks process.

    This paper aims to track the historical transformations in the processes relating to how agreements are reached and to clarify the qualitative changes in these processes until the enactment of the “2+2” system. We will chronologically follow the historical transformations in the Japan-U.S. talks by focusing on the following two points: centered on the “2+2” meetings, how the consulted channels such as the Security Sub-Committee (SSC), the Mini-SSC, and the Sub-Committee on Defense Cooperation (SDC) were utilized in the process of strengthening the alliance; and how actors such as the politicians and the bureaucratic organizations in Japan and the United States spearheaded the agreement. The following became clear as a result of doing this.

    In the 1990s, the “2+2” meetings became increasingly important as a type of ceremony that demonstrated the strengthening of an alliance. They also transitioned to being a forum in which each of the channels of consultation was converted into a group of processes. The “2+2” meetings then came to play the role of controlling the deadlines for the targets to be met in each of the consultation channels and the channels themselves. In addition, the meetings were positioned as a part of a “comprehensive mechanism” through which Japan and the United States formulated operational plans during emergencies and critical situations in the areas surrounding Japan.

    In the 2000s, there was a change on the Japanese side, whereby the agreement process changed from being led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to being led by the Prime Minister’s Office. This strengthened the initiative of the cabinet ministers and expanded the role of the Ministry of Defense, in particular the uniformed members of the armed forces. As a result, the negotiations with the United States were held in the form of a joint team for foreign affairs and defense under the Prime Minister’s Office, allowing them to deal with the political issues that were difficult to coordinate. In addition, the uniformed personnel group within the Self-Defense Force (SDF) made use of it expertise to realign the bases as well as the units of the SDF and U.S. forces in Japan, thereby strengthening the military cooperation.

    In the 2010’s, the Japanese side proposed a revision of the 1997 Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation along with the consideration and coordination of the expansion of the Japan-U.S. roles, including the partial acceptance of the right to have a collective self-defense.

    It became clear that the qualitative changes in the “2+2” system as described above had gradually strengthened the framework of the Japan-U.S. Alliance. While “2+2” did not fully function right from the beginning, nevertheless, through the changes in the situation in East Asia post the end of Cold War and other factors, the two countries accumulated an experience of more than 20 years and qualitatively shifted towards more politically, militarily, and pragmatically important engagements.

  • 李 鍾元
    アジア太平洋討究
    2022年 44 巻 51-76
    発行日: 2022/03/24
    公開日: 2022/03/29
    研究報告書・技術報告書 フリー

    This article aims to examine the origins of the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula from a historical perspective. For that purpose, the long process of confrontation between North Korea and the United States during the hot and the cold war in the peninsular is reviewed, with a focus on the role of the nuclear weapons both in the military and political context. The juxtaposition of the U.S.-Soviet rivalry and the North-South competition is also given particular attention as a systemic factor that facilitated the nuclear proliferation in the peninsula, first as “atoms for peace” and then for military purpose.

    North Korean nuclear program was launched with the assistance from the Soviet Union. But soon it became an independent and indigenous project, refusing foreign, even Soviet, interference, causing concerns over its secrecy. Even with its advanced intelligence capabilities, such as spy satellites, the U.S. had difficulties in finding out what was happening in Yongbyon. When North Korea seemed to get closer to the weapons program, the Reagan Administration began to take the “modest initiative” offering diplomatic contact as “carrots” for engagement. On the other hand, the following Bush Administration put more emphasis on “sticks” by demanding IAEA inspection as preconditions for bilateral meetings. American “two-track strategy” was met with North Korea’s own “two-track strategy” of multi-directional diplomacy and accelerated nuclearization. The collision of the two dual strategies, exacerbated by mutual distrust and misunderstanding, led to the outbreak of the crisis in the early 1990s.

  • 鈴木 一人
    国際安全保障
    2013年 41 巻 1 号 44-59
    発行日: 2013/06/30
    公開日: 2022/04/07
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 佐々木 卓也
    国際政治
    2011年 2011 巻 163 号 163_1-13
    発行日: 2011/01/20
    公開日: 2013/05/10
    ジャーナル フリー
    Nuclear weapons were an integral part of the US arsenal in the Cold War years. Successive administrations relied on the enormously destructive power of these weapons for the defense of the Western Bloc. The US government, maintaining a final voice in employing nuclear weapons in contingency, rejected its allies' request that the weapons not be used from their bases without prior approval. Nuclear power was also utilized, however, to cement ties with its allies by offering bilateral agreements for the peaceful use of this source of energy.
    While engaged in the nuclear arms race, the US and the USSR shared a common interest in averting war and preventing nuclear proliferation; both nations began nuclear test ban negotiations in the latter half of the 1950s. The PTBT of 1963 and the NPT of 1968 were two treaties that resulted from these negotiations. Throughout the Cold War years, nuclear mutual deterrence between the two superpowers was maintained, and the NPT was largely successful in controlling nuclear proliferation. The US was estimated to have spent $5.5 trillion on nuclear weapons, which represented almost 29% of all military spending in the Cold War period. The US bore the staggering cost of nuclear weapons regardless of their inherent risk so as to insure Pax America.
    With the end of the Cold War, nuclear deterrence against the USSR lost its military validity while the accelerating spread of nuclear weapons became a matter of serious concern. Iraq was reported to have reached an advanced stage of nuclear development, only to have that capability negated by the Gulf War; India, Pakistan, and North Korea, however, succeeded in declaring themselves in possession of nuclear weapons. The danger that “rogue states” and international terrorist organizations might attain and use nuclear weaponry came to loom large for America. 9/11 gave the G.W. Bush administration a sense of tremendous urgency in the matter of dealing with the issue of nuclear proliferation. Actually, the war against Iraq was waged under the pretext of eliminating weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein allegedly had produced.
    The proposal that H. Kissinger, G. Shultz, W. Perry and S. Nunn made in January 2007 calling for a world without nuclear weapons should be understood in this altered strategic context. Stressing the significance of coping with the threat of nuclear proliferation, these four highly prominent experts on nuclear strategy proposed the elimination of nuclear weapons. In the same vain, President Obama made a celebrated address in Prague in April 2009; his speech's major emphasis lay on nuclear disarmament and prevention of nuclear proliferation.
    Nuclear weapons, which had brought about a certain stability and predictability in US-Soviet relations and helped insure Pax America, has now come to constitute the most pressing threat to US security. The nuclear proliferation is a disturbing legacy of the Cold War.
  • 李 鍾元
    アジア太平洋討究
    2021年 41 巻 143-173
    発行日: 2021/03/25
    公開日: 2022/03/17
    研究報告書・技術報告書 フリー

    This article first reviews the 30-year history of the recurring nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, focusing on the U.S. policies, and attempts to find out the reasons why the successive administrations showed a similar pattern of trial and error. From Clinton, who had to deal with the first nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, to Trump who was faced with North Korea armed with almost operational nuclear-tipped ICBMs, U.S. presidents would begin with strong words and actions, but ended in diplomatic compromises. Most of them even contemplated military options, but they had to back down due to the staggering risks and costs of the possible outbreak of the second Korean War. The compromised deals would also turn out to be insufficient to resolve the crisis.

    In terms of foreign policy orientation and personnel, the new Biden Administration has a strong link and continuity with the Clinton and Obama eras. By analyzing the discussions on North Korea by the foreign policy experts in the Biden camp, and influential thinktanks such as the Center for a New American Security, this article offers some insights into how the experiences in the previous administrations would affect the future policies on the issue of denuclearization, such as the change of focus to “threat reduction” by applying the arms control paradigm.

  • ―強制手段の役割を中心に―
    道下 徳成
    国際安全保障
    2005年 33 巻 1 号 51-87
    発行日: 2005/06/30
    公開日: 2022/04/24
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 国際法外交雑誌
    2014年 113 巻 2 号 238-297
    発行日: 2014/08/20
    公開日: 2024/01/30
    ジャーナル フリー
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