Pore pressure plays a key role in the generation of earthquakes in subduction zones. However, quantitative constraints for its determination are quite limited. Here, we estimate the subsurface pore pressure by analyzing the transient upwelling flow of drilling mud from borehole C0023A of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 370, in the Nankai Trough off Cape Muroto. This upward flow provided the first direct evidence of an overpressured aquifer in the underthrust sediments off Cape Muroto (Figure). To estimate the pre-drilling pore pressure in the overpressured aquifer around a depth of 950–1050 meters below sea floor, we examined the measured porosities of core samples retrieved from nearby IODP wells; we then proceeded to explain the observed time evolution of the flow rate of the upwelling flow by modeling various sized aquifers through solving a radial diffusion equation. It was observed that for a permeability of 10^–13 m², the aquifer possessed an initial excess pore pressure of ~5 to 10 MPa above the hydrostatic pressure, with a lateral dimension of several hundred meters and thickness of several tens of meters. The overpressure estimates from the porosity-depth profile at Site C0023 differ from those at other drill sites in the region, suggesting the possible existence of multiple overpressured aquifers with a patchy distribution in the underthrust sediments of the Nankai Trough. As pore pressure is relevant in maintaining fault stability, the overpressured aquifers may be the source of slow earthquakes that have been observed around the drilling site.

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Water affects many geological and geophysical phenomena, for example, earthquake generation. Recently, anomalous earthquakes, which are strongly related to fluid have been detected in a subduction zone by densely distributed geodetic and seismic observation networks. These are called slow earthquakes and are divided into many categories of earthquakes. The long-term slow slip in Tokai or Bungo Channel, which occurs at the subducting plate interface, is a phenomenon with a very long time-constant ranging from months to years. At the deeper part of the long-term slow slip, the short-term slow slip occurs with a period of several days associated with the non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremor in the transition zone on the plate interface in southwest Japan. These slow earthquakes might be related to fluid liberated from the down-going slab by dehydration process. At the shallower part of the subducting plate interface, the very low-frequency earthquakes occur in the accretionary prism near the Nankai trough. These slow earthquakes indicate a weakening of frictional strength at the plate interface and low stress drop due to the existence of fluid.

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Episodes of intermittent uplift over periods of one month to a year have been observed by the Global Navigation Satellite System in the northeastern part of Chiba Prefecture, Kanto district, Japan. Uplift in the vicinity of Choshi in 2000 was accompanied by the earthquake near Choshi in June 2000 (M 6.1). Uplift of the northeastern part of Chiba Prefecture in 2005 was accompanied by the earthquakes near Choshi in April 2005 (M 6.1) and near Chiba city in July 2005 (M 6.0). Although our estimates of the source parameters for these uplifts were well explained by slips on the faults of these earthquakes, the amounts of slip we estimated for the uplifts were several times larger than we expected from the earthquakes. We attribute the above mentioned intermittent uplift events to aseismic slips on the faults of these earthquakes.

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