Checking Firms' Life Spans Expected 30 Years Ago

Abstract

Thirty years ago, in 1987, a questionnaire that asked the question, “The average lifespan of a company is said to be 30 years. What do you think the probability is that your company will have survived after 30 years?” was sent as part of a white-collar survey of 11 large Japanese firms. Responses were received from 575 people, and the average “probability” was 72%. Thirty years later, in 2017, two companies that employed 127 of those 575 people did not survive. This makes a survival rate of 78%.