Impacts of Future Climate Change Effects on Spring Barley and Maize Yield in Slovenia

抄録

Slovenia is a mid-latitude country, where future climatic changes are expected to be significant. So, a dynamic crop model AGROS was used to examine combined effects of increasing CO₂ and higher temperatures on spring barley and maize yields in Slovenia. Model simulates water-limited production, but assumes healthy plants and appropriate nutrition. Simulations were carried out for various combinations of increased temperature (by 1, 2, 3, 4°C) and CO₂ concentrations (350, 450 and 700ppm). The model predicted shorter growing period due to warming for both crops. In spring barley the total dry matter and grain yield increase due to increasing CO₂, but if temperature rise exceeds 2.7°C, total dry matter and yield decrease. In maize the total dry matter, grain yield and harvest index generally increase.