Abstract
Objective: A future prediction of HIV/AIDS in Japan (except HIV infection through blood coagulation factor products) was done.
Materials & Methods: The numbers for HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases until 2003 were predicted using HIV/AIDS surveillance reports until 1998, the estimated coverage rate of HIV infection, proportion of HIV-infected persons with recent anti-HIV therapies, and the latent distribution from HIV infection to AIDS.
Results: The prevalence of HIV-infected persons was estimated to be 7, 300 in the population of Japanese nationals and 700 in that of non-Japanese nationals by the end of 1998, and was predicted to be 15, 400 in Japanese and 700 in non-Japanese by the end of 2003. The cumulative numbers for AIDS cases were reported to be 925 in the population of Japanese nationals and 361 in that of non-Japanese nationals by the end of 1998, and was predicted to be 3, 300 in Japanese and 900 in non-Japanese by the end of 2003.
Conclusion: The numbers predicted for HIV-infected persons and AIDS cases until 2003 were shown.
