一般化線形混合モデルを用いた津波火災の発生件数の予測手法
2015 年 80 巻 718 号 p. 1105-1114
詳細
2015 年 80 巻 718 号 p. 1105-1114
A statistical model for number of tsunami fires was estimated. In this model, the number of tsunami fires is assumed to be Poisson distribution and its parameter λ is modeled by using the generalized linear mixed model. The model estimation was based on the data of ignitions after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake which has been investigated by Japan Association for Fire Science and Engineering. The estimated model was applied to the previous damage estimation for Nankai Trough Earthquake in order to represent a way of predicting the number of tsunami fires caused by the future tsunamis.
