シリア経由でのムジャーヒドゥーンのイラク潜入の構図：世論調査を基にした検証

抄録

This study attempts to verify the truth of commonly held assertions or assumptions about the problem of infiltration of Mujāhidūn into Iraq via Syria (Infiltration Problem). The study focuses on tribes in the region of North Eastern Syria, because there are many analyses that make assumptions about the importance of their role without a practical basis. Preceding studies revealed that there are four types of actors in the mechanism of the Infiltration: “Infiltrators,” “Recruiters,” “Coordinators,” and “Accepters.” Good relations and cooperation between the latter three actors are key factors for successful infiltration into Iraq. Usually, the inhabitants of North Eastern Syria are considered to play the role of “Coordinators.” The study presents major discussions and facts about the Infiltration Problem, such as tribal linkage between Syria and the Arabian Peninsula, tribal linkage between Syria and Iraq, Syrian policy toward the Infiltration Problem, and the possible relationship between smuggling and the Infiltration Problem. Although it is difficult to examine Syrian policy toward the Infiltration Problem, or to acquire reliable information about the smuggling network, the study attempts to verify the importance of the role of tribal relationships and sympathy for the Mujāhidūn on the Syrian side with regard to the Infiltration Problem. The results indicate that the role of tribal relationships and sympathy for the Mujāhidūn has been overestimated. On the other hand, it also demonstrates that there is, to some extent, an ideological contradiction between actors with regard to the Infiltration Problem. The importance of understanding the Infiltration Problem by taking a subjective approach will be crucial in the short term. Hence, improved ways of conducting research about the Infiltration Problem are still required.