GCC諸国の輸出工業化と経済統合

抄録

Six Gulf nations reaped an average 40% increase in exports annually throughout the 1970s, exceeding substantially the world average 20.9% and the developing countries' 27.5% thanks much to a high demand for crude oil. Increased oil revenue stimulated domestic economies, and those six countries imported a large amount of capital and consumer goods from the developed nations. As a result of higher dependance upon crude oil exports and accelerated imports of consumer goods, the typical vertical trading was practised between the Gulf and oil-import countries. Unlike the industrial countries maintaining high productivity, the Gulf oil-exporting countries were only "transforming their natural assets to financial assets by means of trading" in the 70s, and the diversification of domestic industries became a top priority for healthier economies in those countries. Much was made of the development of oil-related industries in Saudi Arabia, which foresaw high economic growth in national industrialisation, while the Kuwaiti Government invested its large oil revenue on offshore manufacturing of oil products. Nevertheless, these Arab oil countries in general adopted similar development strategies for their common problems, such as manpower shortage, limited local markets, or the lack of natural resources excluding crude oil, only to worsen competition among themselves. To promote mutual prosperity by relaxing competition, the Gulf Coorperation Council was formed by the six Arab oil-exporting nations, and it has been seven years since its establishment. The past seven years saw several environmental changes, such as the outbreak of the Iran-Iraqi War, and a steep decline in oil prices, and now GCC is about to enter a new phase to achieve their goal of economic integration. Despite its basic objective, however, the regional trade among the GCC countries still remains limited because of the countries' vertical economic structure linked with the developed nations. The import tax reduction in the region also appears to have failed to promote an increase in the local trade on the ground that the import tax of the Gulf nations was not effective to reduce imports due to their substantial financial resources. Yet, the tax reduction may put pressure on Kuwait or U.A.E., which have been enjoying favourable trading business in the region owing thier lower import tax than the other Gulf countres. Moreover, historically established trade linkage between GCC and surrounding countries, Iran, Iraq, or India, for example, may be affected by the promotion of local trade. Statistics tell the trade interdependance between U.A.E. and Iran, and Iraq and Kuwait also maintain a close relationship. Imports and exports with surrounding large countries have been supporting the local economies of minor GCC countries. Considering the greater Gulf economies, and the economic development among the GCC countries, intersupport of industries in the region has to be achieved in accordance with mutually negotiated industrialisation policies of the members. The GCC countries are developing both the oil and non-oil industries, but currently, these two sectors are not so closely linked as to meet domestic demands. Therefore, domestic industries, especially the petro-chemical industry, have to be diversified to stimulate the local economies. To realise mutual prosperity, the GCC will need to establish its sovereignty for decision-making over each member country. The GCC, as a regional organization, will be able to adjust their development planning and adopt a unified policy in the future under such circumstances.