Assessing future vegetation and snow amounts in Mongolia using the CMIP5 dataset

Abstract

In order to assess the future drought and dzud (snow disaster) risk in Mongolia, we investigated the vegetation and snow amounts in the 21st century, using the output of earth system models with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) compiled in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the moderate RCP4.5, with which many model centers submitted their outputs, leaf area index has slightly increasing trend, whilst snow water equivalent has no clear trend. From these results it is indicated that drought and dzud risk have stable to slightly decreasing trend in the study period.