Abstract
Climate change has profoundly affected the global water cycle and the balance of supply and demand for agricultural water resources, thereby threatening food security and sustainable agricultural development. This paper systematically reviews the dual impacts of climate change drivers—including rising temperatures, changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, and the increasing frequency of extreme climate events—on the supply and demand of agricultural water resources, with particular attention to their mechanisms affecting surface water, groundwater recharge, and irrigation demand. The findings indicate that water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions is becoming increasingly severe, the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of water in temperate and tropical regions is intensifying, and river basins dependent on glacier and snowmelt are facing significant risks. In response to these challenges, this study evaluates the potential of various adaptation measures, including efficient water-saving irrigation technologies (such as drip irrigation, micro-sprinkling, and intelligent regulation systems), enhancement of crop drought tolerance and resilience (through conventional breeding and emerging techniques such as gene editing), as well as refined water resource management and policy optimization (encompassing agricultural water pricing regulation and allocation mechanisms). Moreover, the application prospects of climate model simulations and uncertainty forecasting in water resource planning are discussed, while highlighting the limitations of current research in multi-scale integrated assessment, interdisciplinary synthesis, and policy translation. Finally, future research directions are proposed. The purpose of this paper is to provide scientific references for policymakers, agricultural managers, and the research community to enhance the adaptability and resilience of agricultural water resource systems and ensure the long-term sustainability of agriculture.
