抄録
The fertility rate in East Asia has declined rapidly, so the aging of this region’s population will accelerate over time. The speed of population aging in East Asian countries will be equal to or faster than that of Japan, currently the fastest among the developed countries. In China and Thailand in particular, the fertility rate has begun to decline among low-income groups, and is now lower than the population replacement rate of 2.1. Thus, low-income groups in these countries will age more compared to developed countries. The immediate task for both China and Thailand is to take the following two measures.
First, an appropriate development strategy regarding demographic transition must be adopted to maintain sustainable economic growth. Both countries could realize high growth by taking advantage of demographic dividends including plentiful labor and the high domestic saving rate in the past two decades. However, the demographic dividends will be finished before higher-income levels can be attained. The employment structure of both China and Thailand has not changed very much, and a lot of the labor force is still in agriculture. To promote sustainable development, the main task is to cope with how to improve the productivity of middle- and upper-age laborers in agriculture as well as upgrading the education system for younger people.
Second, a social security system must be designed that takes account of the demographic transition. Both governments clearly desire a social security system that would cover the entire population including farmers and self-employed owners. However, they must take into account the future budget burden caused by the rapidly aging population. In addition to designing an effective and sustainable social security system, they must make the most of the informal systems such as family, community and non-governmental to take care of the aging society. Furthermore, the aid community must assist in coping with the aging societies in developing countries from the point of view of human security whenever necessary.
